The raised guidance, particularly the swing in HDMC operating income from a loss to a profit, is a strong positive signal that should drive the stock higher. Monitor the HDFS run-rate as the capital-light transition stabilizes; the core motorcycle business is clearly improving.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Harley-Davidson reported Q2 2026 EPS of $0.75, a 16.7% beat vs. consensus of $0.64, and raised full-year guidance across retail sales, wholesale shipments, and HDMC/HDFS operating income. The core HDMC segment showed strength with revenue up 6% YoY and operating income up 18%, but consolidated results were dragged down by a 55% revenue decline at HDFS following the 2025 loan asset sale, causing total revenue to fall 6% and net income to drop 26% YoY. The raised guidance on the back of improving HDMC fundamentals is the primary catalyst, outweighing the structural HDFS headwind.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $0.75 beat consensus of $0.64 by 16.7%
- Raised FY 2026 guidance: HDMC retail sales to 133.5K-138.5K units (from 130K-135K); HDMC OI to $10M-$50M (from ($40M)-$10M)
- HDMC revenue up 6% YoY to $1.104B; HDMC operating income up 18% YoY to $72M
- Consolidated revenue down 6% YoY to $1.23B due to HDFS revenue decline of 55%
- Global retail motorcycle sales up 1% YoY; North America retail up 3%
- Repurchased $158M of shares (7.9M shares) in H1 2026
Financial Impact
EPS beat of $0.11 (16.7%) on consensus $0.64; raised FY guidance implies HDMC OI midpoint of $30M vs prior ($15M) loss midpoint
Risk Factors
- HDFS revenue and operating income continue to decline sharply as the loan portfolio shrinks
- Tariff costs and unfavorable product mix continue to pressure gross margins
- EMEA retail sales declined 9% YoY, indicating ongoing international weakness
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000793952-26-000055 |
| Document: hog-20260723.htm | 0000793952-26-000055 |
| Document: 0000793952-26-000055-index-headers.html | 0000793952-26-000055 |
| Document: 0000793952-26-000055-index.html | 0000793952-26-000055 |
| Document: 0000793952-26-000055.txt | 0000793952-26-000055 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000793952-26-000055 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 16, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $26.84 | awaiting T+60 | — | $28.85 (+7.49%) |
Sep 3, 2026 7w ago | Press Release | $28.30 | awaiting T+60 | — | $28.85 (+1.94%) |
Aug 15, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $27.03 | awaiting T+60 | — | $28.85 (+6.73%) |
Aug 13, 2026 10w ago | Insider Cluster | $27.78 | awaiting T+60 | — | $28.85 (+3.85%) |
Aug 11, 2026 10w ago | Insider Cluster | $25.79 | awaiting T+60 | — | $28.85 (+11.85%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $25.52 | awaiting T+60 | — | $28.85 (+13.03%) |
Jul 23, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $26.52 $27.59 | ▲ +4.03% | ▼ −0.52% | $28.85 (+8.79%) |
Jul 7, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $25.36 $24.83 | ▼ −2.09% | ▼ −4.58% | $28.85 (+13.76%) |
Jun 26, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $24.23 $26.03 | ▲ +7.43% | ▲ +3.04% | $28.85 (+19.07%) |
May 28, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $24.14 $28.29 | ▲ +17.18% | ▲ +16.26% | $28.85 (+19.50%) |
US Market Status
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