The massive EPS beat and raised 45Z credit guidance signal near-term cash flow strength, but the revenue decline from divestitures clouds underlying growth. Watch for organic volume trends and any policy changes to 45Z credits. The stock may react positively to the beat and guidance, but the revenue drag caps upside.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Green Plains reported Q1 2026 EPS of $0.42, far above the -$0.01 consensus, with adjusted EBITDA of $71.5M including $55.2M in 45Z tax credits. Revenue fell 25.9% to $445.8M due to the Obion plant sale and ceased marketing agreement, but underlying ethanol margins improved dramatically. Management raised its 2026 45Z-related EBITDA guidance to $200-225M.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 EPS $0.42 diluted vs consensus -$0.01
- Revenue $445.8M, down 25.9% YoY primarily from divestiture and marketing agreement termination
- Adjusted EBITDA $71.5M vs ($24.2M) in prior year
- 45Z production tax credits contributed $55.2M to adjusted EBITDA
- Raised 2026 45Z EBITDA guidance to $200-225M from ~$188M
- SG&A reduced to $19.5M from $42.9M YoY
- Ethanol crush margin turned positive at $64.6M vs ($14.7M) YoY
- Early adopted ASU 2025-10, reclassifying 45Z credits to reduce COGS
Financial Impact
EPS beat by $0.43 (4300%) vs consensus; revenue decline of $155.7M (25.9%) but structural; EBITDA swing of +$95.7M
Risk Factors
- Revenue decline from Obion plant sale and lost marketing volume may persist
- 45Z tax credit program subject to policy/legislative risk
- Commodity margin volatility (ethanol, corn, RINs)
- High debt leverage ($492.2M total debt) with rising interest expense
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001309402-26-000058 |
| Document: gpreq12026earningsrelease.htm | 0001309402-26-000058 |
| Document: gpre-20260507.htm | 0001309402-26-000058 |
| Document: 0001309402-26-000058-index-headers.html | 0001309402-26-000058 |
| Document: 0001309402-26-000058-index.html | 0001309402-26-000058 |
| Document: 0001309402-26-000058.txt | 0001309402-26-000058 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001309402-26-000058 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $15.20 $14.96 | ▼ −1.58% | ▼ −2.18% | $15.23 (+0.20%) |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | S-3ASR | $14.41 $16.83 | ▲ +16.79% | ▲ +15.63% | $15.23 (+5.69%) |
May 7, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $16.46 $15.90 | ▼ −3.40% | ▼ −6.54% | $15.23 (−7.47%) |
Apr 24, 2026 23w ago | DEFA14A | $16.46 $15.83 | ▼ −3.83% | ▼ −8.78% | $15.23 (−7.47%) |
Apr 23, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $15.92 $15.07 | ▼ −5.34% | ▼ −9.37% | $15.23 (−4.33%) |
US Market Status
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