The Q2 beat on earnings is largely driven by 45Z tax credits that may not recur at the same level; monitor the sustainability of ethanol crush margins and any policy changes around clean fuel credits. Revenue decline from plant sales and lower volumes remains a structural headwind. Watch for conference call commentary on Q3 guidance, carbon sequestration project timelines, and debt reduction plans.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Green Plains reported Q2 2026 net income of $67.1M ($0.83 diluted EPS) versus a net loss of $72.2M in Q2 2025, driven by $58.7M in 45Z clean fuel production tax credits and higher ethanol margins. However, revenue fell 19.3% to $446.2M due to the Obion plant disposition and lower ethanol volumes. Adjusted EBITDA surged to $93.3M from $16.4M, and operating cash flow was $86.3M. The strong earnings beat (+30.6% vs consensus $0.64) is offset by a significant revenue miss (-17.7% vs consensus $542.4M), creating conflicting signals for the stock.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Net income of $67.1M ($0.83 diluted EPS) vs net loss of $72.2M ($1.09) in Q2 2025
- Revenue $446.2M, down 19.3% YoY from $552.8M, driven by Obion plant disposition and lower volumes
- Adjusted EBITDA $93.3M vs $16.4M, including $58.7M of 45Z production tax credits (net)
- Ethanol crush margin $95.1M vs $26.3M; ethanol production segment operating income $71.0M vs ($12.2M)
- Operating cash flow $86.3M; total cash $243.1M with $290M revolver availability
- SG&A reduced 21% YoY to $21.7M
- 88% utilization from eight operating ethanol plants
Financial Impact
EPS beat by $0.19 vs consensus but revenue missed by $96.2M; net income swing of +$139.4M YoY; overall mixed impact with profit surge offset by top-line contraction
Risk Factors
- Revenue decline from plant disposition and lower ethanol volumes may persist if not offset by new capacity
- 45Z production tax credits are subject to legislative risk and policy changes (One Big Beautiful Bill Act)
- Ethanol crush margins are volatile and sensitive to corn prices, RIN values, and gasoline demand
- Total debt of $483.7M with $69.5M current maturities; leverage could tighten if cash flow weakens
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-053808 |
| Document: gpre-20260806.htm | 0001628280-26-053808 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-053808-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-053808 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-053808-index.html | 0001628280-26-053808 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-053808.txt | 0001628280-26-053808 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-053808 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $15.20 $14.96 | ▼ −1.58% | ▼ −2.18% | $15.23 (+0.20%) |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | S-3ASR | $14.41 $16.83 | ▲ +16.79% | ▲ +15.63% | $15.23 (+5.69%) |
May 7, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $16.46 $15.90 | ▼ −3.40% | ▼ −6.54% | $15.23 (−7.47%) |
Apr 24, 2026 23w ago | DEFA14A | $16.46 $15.83 | ▼ −3.83% | ▼ −8.78% | $15.23 (−7.47%) |
Apr 23, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $15.92 $15.07 | ▼ −5.34% | ▼ −9.37% | $15.23 (−4.33%) |
US Market Status
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