The strong revenue beat and raised guidance, combined with a growing contract backlog ($144M NASA CLPS, $94M Space Force, $75M NASA JPL MoonFall) and $459.8M cash position, position Firefly for continued growth. Monitor upcoming milestones: Blue Ghost Gruithuisen Domes CDR completion, Alpha launches from Sweden, and execution on the Lockheed Martin multi-launch agreement. The stock has historically been volatile post-earnings (avg T+20 alpha -12%), but this quarter's fundamentals are materially stronger than prior periods.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Firefly Aerospace reported Q2 2026 revenue of $117.7M, a 45.5% sequential increase and well above the $88.5M consensus, while non-GAAP EPS of -$0.42 beat the -$0.53 estimate by 20.5%. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $420M-$450M, secured multiple major contracts including a $144M NASA CLPS award and a $94M Space Force contract, and completed a $181.6M public offering to fund growth. Despite continued GAAP net losses, the strong revenue beat, raised guidance, and robust contract pipeline signal accelerating commercial and government demand for Firefly's launch and lunar services, making this a significant bullish catalyst for the stock.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Record Q2 2026 revenue of $117.7M, up 45.5% from Q1 2026 and 657% YoY from $15.5M
- Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.42 beat consensus of -$0.53 by 20.5%
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to $420M-$450M
- Awarded $144M NASA CLPS contract for a Blue Ghost Moon mission, sixth lunar contract
- Awarded $94M Space Force contract under Ground-Based Radar Digitization program
- Completed $181.6M net proceeds from underwritten public offering of common stock
- Acquired Space-ng for AI-powered vision navigation and autonomous guidance systems
- Signed multi-launch agreement extension with Lockheed Martin for up to 25 Alpha flights through 2031
- Operating cash flow used -$81.6M in Q2 2026 vs -$28.1M in Q2 2025; free cash flow -$106.3M
- Cash and equivalents of $459.8M as of June 30, 2026, down from $793.0M at year-end 2025
Financial Impact
Revenue of $117.7M vs consensus $88.5M (+33% beat); non-GAAP EPS -$0.42 vs -$0.53 consensus; full-year guidance raised to $420M-$450M; net proceeds of $181.6M from public offering
Risk Factors
- Continued GAAP net losses ($92.3M in Q2 2026) and negative free cash flow (-$106.3M) raise concerns about path to profitability
- Cash burn rate accelerated: operating cash outflow -$81.6M in Q2 vs -$28.1M in Q2 2025, with cash declining from $793M to $460M in six months
- Dependence on government contracts (NASA, Space Force, AFRL) exposes revenue to budget cycles and political risk
- Execution risk on multiple concurrent programs (Blue Ghost, Elytra, Alpha launches from Sweden, Mars SkyFall mission)
- High stock-based compensation ($17.0M in Q2 2026 vs $0.8M in Q2 2025) dilutes shareholders
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3343175 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | Press Release | $26.54 $20.90 | ▼ −21.25% | ▼ −19.35% | $23.32 (−12.13%) |
Aug 9, 2026 7w ago | Institutional Cluster | $25.76 $22.90 | ▼ −11.10% | ▼ −10.19% | $23.32 (−9.47%) |
Jul 15, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $19.03 $26.77 | ▲ +40.67% | ▲ +37.05% | $23.32 (+22.54%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | Press Release | $28.37 $17.84 | ▼ −37.12% | ▼ −34.93% | $23.32 (−17.80%) |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $43.37 $28.37 | ▼ −34.59% | ▼ −33.02% | $23.32 (−46.23%) |
May 29, 2026 18w ago | EFFECT | $46.49 $29.05 | ▼ −37.51% | ▼ −35.72% | $23.32 (−49.84%) |
May 29, 2026 18w ago | Press Release | $46.49 $29.05 | ▲ +37.51% | ▲ +35.72% | $23.32 (+49.84%) |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | Press Release | $57.28 $24.61 | ▼ −57.04% | ▼ −55.13% | $23.32 (−59.29%) |
May 4, 2026 21w ago | Press Release | $31.52 $43.37 | ▲ +37.60% | ▲ +32.64% | $23.32 (−26.02%) |
May 4, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $31.52 $43.37 | ▲ +37.60% | ▲ +32.64% | $23.32 (−26.02%) |
US Market Status
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