Monitor for further insider buying or catalyst events to confirm the bullish thesis. The Temasek exit is a notable contrarian indicator; consider waiting for additional confirmation before initiating a position. The 45-day 13F reporting lag means these positions may have already been unwound.
Executive Summary
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) saw strong institutional accumulation in Q2 2026, with 12 funds adding $151.3M in net new positions, led by State Street ($108.9M increase) and Mirae Asset Global Investments ($31M new stake). However, Temasek Holdings fully exited its $18.9M position and Walleye Capital nearly exited, creating a mixed signal. The cluster is dominated by passive index rebalancing at State Street, reducing conviction, and historical model performance on FLY has been poor, warranting caution.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $126.8M
▲ Buyers (12)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Street | DOUBLED | +751.4% | $122.9M | $108.9M |
| Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. | NEW | — | $31.0M | $31.0M |
| Victory Capital Management | ADD | +57.3% | $12.9M | $5.0M |
| Bank Of New York Mellon | DOUBLED | +221.5% | $7.3M | $5.1M |
▼ Sellers (2)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temasek Holdings (Private) | EXIT | -100% | $18.9M | -$18.9M |
| Walleye Capital | NEAR_EXIT | -87.5% | $6.4M | -$5.6M |
Key Facts
- 12 institutional buyers added $151.3M in net new positions; 2 sellers reduced by $24.5M
- State Street (mega-passive) doubled its stake to $122.9M, accounting for 72% of total buying
- Mirae Asset Global Investments initiated a new $31.0M position
- Temasek Holdings fully exited its $18.9M stake; Walleye Capital nearly exited (-87.5%)
- Net institutional inflow of $126.8M represents ~2.9% of FLY's $4.3B market cap
Financial Impact
Net institutional buying of $126.8M (buyers added $151.3M, sellers reduced $24.5M), concentrated in State Street's $108.9M increase and Mirae's $31.0M new position
Risk Factors
- Temasek's full exit suggests potential fundamental concerns or thesis change
- Heavy passive buying (State Street) may reflect index rebalancing rather than active conviction
- 45-day reporting lag: positions are as of June 30, 2026, and may not reflect current holdings
- Historical model performance on FLY shows 33% win rate and -12% average T+20 return, indicating over-scoring risk
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-FLY-2026-Q2 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | Press Release | $26.54 $20.90 | ▼ −21.25% | ▼ −19.35% | — |
Aug 9, 2026 7w ago | Institutional Cluster | $25.76 $22.90 | ▼ −11.10% | ▼ −10.19% | — |
Jul 15, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $19.03 $26.77 | ▲ +40.67% | ▲ +37.05% | — |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | Press Release | $28.37 $17.84 | ▼ −37.12% | ▼ −34.93% | — |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $43.37 $28.37 | ▼ −34.59% | ▼ −33.02% | — |
May 29, 2026 18w ago | EFFECT | $46.49 $29.05 | ▼ −37.51% | ▼ −35.72% | — |
May 29, 2026 18w ago | Press Release | $46.49 $29.05 | ▲ +37.51% | ▲ +35.72% | — |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | Press Release | $57.28 $24.61 | ▼ −57.04% | ▼ −55.13% | — |
May 4, 2026 21w ago | Press Release | $31.52 $43.37 | ▲ +37.60% | ▲ +32.64% | — |
May 4, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $31.52 $43.37 | ▲ +37.60% | ▲ +32.64% | — |
US Market Status
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