Strong operational execution and deleveraging support the stock, but updated gold cost guidance and higher capex introduce slight margin pressure. Monitor H2 production weighting—copper expected higher in H2 (sequential cost declines) while gold production may hit low end of range. FX hedge program ($40-45M realized gains) provides a tailwind against BRL strength.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Ero Copper reported Q2 2026 revenue of $284.3M (up 73.9% YoY) and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.83 vs $0.82 consensus, a modest in-line beat. The quarter was driven by strong copper production (17,315 tonnes), a 170% sequential jump in gold output, and cash flow from operations of $137.9M (+49% QoQ). Guidance was largely reaffirmed for copper but gold cost and capex guidance were revised higher. The company continues to deleverage, cutting net debt by $38M QoQ to $452.7M.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 revenue $284.3M, up 73.9% from $163.5M in Q2 2025
- Adjusted diluted EPS $0.83 vs consensus $0.82 (in-line, ~1.2% beat)
- Cash flow from operations $137.9M, up 49% from Q1 2026
- Copper production 17,315 tonnes; gold production 20,553 oz (up 170% QoQ)
- Net debt reduced $38.0M QoQ to $452.7M, net debt leverage ratio 0.8x
- 2026 copper production guidance reaffirmed at 67,500–77,500 tonnes
- Gold cost guidance raised: C1 cash cost now $1,100–$1,350/oz (was $1,000–$1,250), AISC now $2,200–$2,700/oz (was $2,000–$2,500)
- Capex guidance increased to $285–$330M from $275–$320M due to new powerline at Xavantina
Financial Impact
Q2 revenue $284.3M (+73.9% YoY), adjusted EPS $0.83 (+80.4% YoY), operating cash flow $137.9M
Risk Factors
- Gold production expected at low end of 40,000-50,000 oz guidance range
- Persistent BRL strength and US-Iran conflict inflationary pressures could increase costs by ~$0.10/lb copper and ~$100/oz gold
- Higher capex ($285-330M vs $275-320M) may pressure FCF if not offset by production gains
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3339827 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 6-K | $31.10 $35.32 | ▲ +13.57% | ▲ +12.97% | $35.75 (+14.95%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $31.10 $35.32 | ▲ +13.57% | ▲ +12.97% | $35.75 (+14.95%) |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | 6-K | $26.21 $27.05 | ▲ +3.20% | ▲ +3.62% | $35.75 (+36.40%) |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | Press Release | $26.21 $27.05 | ▲ +3.20% | ▲ +3.62% | $35.75 (+36.40%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | 6-K | $26.75 $26.20 | ▼ −2.06% | ▼ −1.03% | $35.75 (+33.64%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | Press Release | $26.75 $26.20 | ▼ −2.06% | ▼ −1.03% | $35.75 (+33.64%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $27.70 $25.06 | ▼ −9.53% | ▼ −11.42% | $35.75 (+29.06%) |
Jun 10, 2026 16w ago | 6-K | $25.78 $25.06 | ▼ −2.79% | ▼ −6.42% | $35.75 (+38.67%) |
May 20, 2026 19w ago | 6-K | $26.97 $29.75 | ▲ +10.31% | ▲ +9.57% | $35.75 (+32.55%) |
Apr 1, 2026 26w ago | 6-K | $28.10 $25.85 | ▼ −8.01% | ▼ −17.88% | $35.75 (+27.22%) |
US Market Status
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