The strong Q2 results and reaffirmed copper guidance support a positive outlook, but the raised gold cost guidance and increased capex warrant monitoring for margin pressure. Traders should watch for H2 2026 production ramp at Xavantina and further debt reduction as catalysts. The FX hedge program provides a buffer against BRL strength, but persistent inflation or a weaker BRL could pressure costs.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Ero Copper reported strong Q2 2026 results with revenue of $284.3M (up 74% YoY), driven by higher copper and gold prices and increased production from the Tucum mine. Cash flow from operations rose 49% QoQ to $137.9M, and net debt fell to $452.7M. Copper production guidance was reaffirmed, but gold cost guidance was raised and capital expenditure guidance was increased slightly, reflecting inflationary pressures and a stronger Brazilian real, partially offset by FX hedge gains.
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 revenue was $284.3M, up from $163.5M in Q2 2025.
- Consolidated copper production was 17,315 tonnes at C1 cash cost of $2.42/lb.
- Gold production from Xavantina totaled 20,553 oz, a 170% QoQ increase.
- Cash flow from operations was $137.9M, up ~49% from Q1 2026.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $144.0M, up ~15% QoQ.
- Net debt decreased to $452.7M from $490.7M at Q1 2026.
- Available liquidity increased to $181.7M, including $101.7M cash and $80.0M undrawn credit facility.
- Full-year copper production guidance maintained at 67,500-77,500 tonnes.
- Gold production C1 cash cost guidance raised to $1,100-$1,350/oz from $1,000-$1,250/oz.
- Capital expenditure guidance increased to $285-$330M from $275-$320M.
- FX hedge program generated $19.9M in realized gains YTD, expected to reach $40-$45M for full year.
- Realized copper price was $5.78/lb in Q2 2026 vs $4.12/lb in Q2 2025.
- Realized gold price was $3,903/oz in Q2 2026 vs $3,114/oz in Q2 2025.
Financial Impact
Revenue increased 74% YoY to $284.3M; adjusted net income attributable to owners was $87.4M ($0.83/diluted share) vs $48.1M ($0.46/diluted share) in Q2 2025.
Risk Factors
- Stronger Brazilian real (BRL) increasing operating costs, partially offset by FX hedges.
- Inflationary pressures and U.S.-Iran conflict could raise costs further.
- Gold production at low end of guidance range may pressure unit costs.
- Execution risk on Xavantina ramp-up and Tucum tailings filtration expansion.
- Commodity price volatility (copper and gold) could impact revenue and cash flow.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-053508 |
| Document: erocopper-fsx2026q2.htm | 0001628280-26-053508 |
| Document: erocopper-pressreleasex202.htm | 0001628280-26-053508 |
| Document: ero-2026q2x6k.htm | 0001628280-26-053508 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-053508-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-053508 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-053508-index.html | 0001628280-26-053508 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-053508.txt | 0001628280-26-053508 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 6-K | $31.10 $35.32 | ▲ +13.57% | ▲ +12.97% | $35.75 (+14.95%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $31.10 $35.32 | ▲ +13.57% | ▲ +12.97% | $35.75 (+14.95%) |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | 6-K | $26.21 $27.05 | ▲ +3.20% | ▲ +3.62% | $35.75 (+36.40%) |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | Press Release | $26.21 $27.05 | ▲ +3.20% | ▲ +3.62% | $35.75 (+36.40%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | 6-K | $26.75 $26.20 | ▼ −2.06% | ▼ −1.03% | $35.75 (+33.64%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | Press Release | $26.75 $26.20 | ▼ −2.06% | ▼ −1.03% | $35.75 (+33.64%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $27.70 $25.06 | ▼ −9.53% | ▼ −11.42% | $35.75 (+29.06%) |
Jun 10, 2026 16w ago | 6-K | $25.78 $25.06 | ▼ −2.79% | ▼ −6.42% | $35.75 (+38.67%) |
May 20, 2026 19w ago | 6-K | $26.97 $29.75 | ▲ +10.31% | ▲ +9.57% | $35.75 (+32.55%) |
Apr 1, 2026 26w ago | 6-K | $28.10 $25.85 | ▼ −8.01% | ▼ −17.88% | $35.75 (+27.22%) |
US Market Status
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