KBW's high-accuracy upgrade is a bullish signal, but the $305 target is below the median and CEO selling is notable. With earnings on July 21, traders should watch for a catalyst. The upgrade adds conviction to the bullish consensus, but the elevated short interest (55.3%) and insider sales suggest caution. Consider a long position if earnings beat, but hedge with the high short ratio.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
CME Group Inc. (CME) receives a double upgrade from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) to Outperform from Market Perform, with a $305 price target (unchanged from prior). Current price is $252.54, implying 20.8% upside to the target. The upgrade is a contrarian call: KBW's 75% accuracy (6 of 8 calls) and 7.6% average return rank it above the median among 12 firms covering CME. Consensus is split: 10 Buy (including 2 Strong Buy), 8 Hold, 3 Sell — mean target $305.93, median $310, high $353, low $230. KBW's $305 target sits at the 40th percentile of the range, below the median. Momentum is positive: 2 upgrades (including Rothschild & Co to Buy on June 11) vs 0 downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS estimates are being revised higher: 30-day revisions up 3 vs 0 down for 0y and +1y periods. Insider selling is notable: CEO Terrence A. Duffy sold $7.75M on May 15, and director Hilda Piell sold $1.75M on May 18 — these sales align with the bearish consensus but are partially offset by a $418K insider buy on March 26. Short interest is 55.3% of float, elevated. Bottom line: KBW's upgrade is a high-accuracy, contrarian call that adds bullish conviction, but the $305 target is below the median, suggesting limited near-term upside. Traders should watch for earnings on July 21 for catalyst.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus: 10 Buy (2 Strong Buy, 8 Buy), 8 Hold, 3 Sell — 15 analysts total. 67% Buy, 53% Hold, 20% Sell. Direction is bullish but not unanimous. KBW's upgrade to Outperform aligns with the Buy-leaning consensus but is above the median firm's accuracy.
Price targets: mean $305.93, median $310, high $353 (Morgan Stanley), low $230 (JP Morgan). Current price $252.54 implies 21.1% upside to mean, 22.8% to median. KBW's $305 is at the 40th percentile of the range, below the median. The high target ($353) from Morgan Stanley (88% accuracy) is 39.8% above current; the low ($230) from JP Morgan (0% accuracy) is 8.9% below.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | upgrade | Outperform | $305.00 |
| 2026-06-11 | Rothschild & Co | upgrade | Buy | $323.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $353.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $316.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $329.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $343.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $362.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $344.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | Argus Research | downgrade | Hold | — |
| 2026-02-05 | JP Morgan | maintain | Underweight | $266.00 |
30-day activity: 2 upgrades (KBW, Rothschild & Co), 0 downgrades. EPS revisions: 30-day revisions up 3 vs 0 down for 0y and +1y periods; 7-day revisions up 1 vs 0 down. Estimates are being revised higher, consistent with the bullish upgrade.
Firm Track Record — Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods accuracy: 58% on 2175 calls | avg return: 3.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 12 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | 100% | 4/4 | 3.1% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 100% | 6/6 | 7.8% | top tier |
| Deutsche Bank | 100% | 5/5 | 6.7% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 89% | 8/9 | 8.5% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 88% | 7/8 | 6.1% | top tier |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | 75% | 6/8 | 7.6% | top tier |
| Barclays | 71% | 10/14 | 5.6% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 71% | 5/7 | 3.6% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 60% | 3/5 | 4.9% | above average |
| Raymond James | 50% | 1/2 | 0.7% | below average |
KBW: 75% accuracy (6 of 8), 7.6% avg return — above the 12-firm median (71%). Best: UBS (100%, 3.1% avg), RBC Capital (100%, 7.8%), Deutsche Bank (100%, 6.7%), Piper Sandler (89%, 8.5%). Worst: JP Morgan (0% on 6 calls, 5.9% avg), B of A Securities (0% on 4 calls, 5.1% avg). KBW's accuracy is above the median but below top-tier firms.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 21, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $2.97 | $2.80 — $3.16 | $1.7B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $12.28 | $11.91 — $12.62 | $7.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $12.92 | $11.85 — $13.61 | $7.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $2.98 | $2.88 — $3.10 | $1.7B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: CEO Terrence A. Duffy sold $7.75M (May 15), director Hilda Piell sold $1.75M (May 18) — bearish signal. Director William R. Shepard bought $418K (March 26) — bullish. Institutional: Allstate Corp added 43.6% ($11.7M), Erste Asset added 54.4% ($29.4M) — bullish. Short interest: 55.3% of float (320,116 shares) — elevated, bearish. The insider sales (CEO, director) align with the bearish consensus, but the institutional adds and KBW's upgrade create divergence. Short interest is high, suggesting potential squeeze risk.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 2, 2026 today | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $262.30 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $261.37 (−0.35%) |
Sep 15, 2026 17d ago | Insider Cluster | $275.09 $267.21 | ▼ −2.86% | ▼ −3.68% | $261.37 (−4.99%) |
Aug 19, 2026 6w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 22, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $249.24 $265.44 | ▲ +6.50% | ▲ +8.90% | $261.37 (+4.87%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $246.38 $225.00 | ▼ −8.68% | ▼ −7.01% | $261.37 (+6.08%) |
Jun 17, 2026 15w ago | 8-K | $252.54 $231.68 | ▼ −8.26% | ▼ −7.22% | $261.37 (+3.50%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $269.53 $246.38 | ▼ −8.59% | ▼ −9.26% | $261.37 (−3.03%) |
May 19, 2026 19w ago | DEFA14A | $290.04 $277.34 | ▼ −4.38% | ▼ −6.18% | $261.37 (−9.88%) |
May 19, 2026 19w ago | Insider Cluster | $290.04 $277.34 | ▼ −4.38% | ▼ −6.18% | $261.37 (−9.88%) |
Apr 22, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $285.58 $283.30 | ▲ +0.80% | ▲ +0.85% | $261.37 (+8.48%) |
US Market Status
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