Price Chart

Executive Summary

Rothschild & Co double-upgraded CME Group from Neutral to Buy on June 11, 2026, raising its price target to $323 from $316, implying 22.4% upside from the current $263.80. Rothschild has a 57% accuracy rate on 40 calls and an average return of 3.1%, placing it below the top-tier firms covering CME. Consensus is split: 10 Buy (48%), 8 Hold (38%), 3 Sell (14%) across 21 analysts, with a mean price target of $305.47. Rothschild' s $323 target is above both the mean and median ($310). Over the past 30 days, only 1 upgrade has occurred, while EPS revisions have been net negative (11 downward revisions for the current quarter, 11 for this fiscal year). Insider activity is mixed: CEO Terry Duffy sold $7.75M in mid-May, while an insider bought $418K in March. Institutional moves show Bank of America and Capital Research adding, but Price T Rowe and Renaissance trimming. Short interest is elevated at 55.3%. The next earnings report is due July 21, 2026. The bullish call from a moderately accurate firm faces headwinds from insider selling and downward estimate revisions, but the double-upgrade signal is rare and merits attention.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of 21 analysts, 10 rate Buy (48%), 8 Hold (38%), 3 Sell (14%). The consensus leans bullish but is far from unanimous, with a notable hold camp reflecting caution. Rothschild's upgrade adds to the buy-side, which already is the largest single rating group.

Mean target $305.47, median $310, high $353, low $230. Current price of $263.80 implies 15.8% upside to the mean and 21.5% to the median. Rothschild's $323 target sits above both the mean and median, placing it in the upper third of the range. The high target of $353 (Morgan Stanley) suggests potential for further upside if earnings beat.

Recent Analyst Activity

Over the past 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (Rothschild) and 0 downgrades. However, EPS estimate revisions have been decisively negative: current quarter (0Q) saw 0 upward and 11 downward revisions in 30 days; current fiscal year (0y) had 3 up and 11 down; next fiscal year (+1y) had 4 up and 7 down. The upgrade stands in contrast to the estimate consensus trending lower.

Firm Track Record — Rothschild & Co

Rothschild & Co accuracy: 57% on 40 calls | avg return: 3.1%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 12 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Rothschild & Co has a 57% accuracy on 40 calls with an average return of 3.1%. This is below the top-tier firms covering CME (UBS, RBC, Deutsche, Piper Sandler, Morgan Stanley all above 85% accuracy), but above the worst (JPMorgan and BofA have 0% accuracy on their CME calls). Rothschild is not among the most followed firms for CME, so its call may carry less weight.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 21, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades: CEO Terry Duffy sold $7.75M on May 15, and director Hilda Piell sold $1.75M on May 18 — both sell-side signals opposing the bullish call. An insider purchase of $418K by William Shepard in March provides minor support. Institutional: Price T Rowe trimmed 30.1%, Bank of America added 39.1%, Capital Research doubled its position (+213.9%), while Renaissance trimmed 51.6% and Norges exited. Short interest is high at 55.3% of float, suggesting bearish sentiment. No congressional trades recorded. The analyst upgrade is divergent from insider selling but convergent with some institutional accumulation.

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status