The revenue miss and negative EBITDA are concerning, but the Barber Lake lease expansion ($9.1B total contracted revenue) and 5.9 GW pipeline signal long-term HPC growth. Monitor Q4 for additional HPC lease commencements and bitcoin mining revenue stabilization. The activist stake (13.2% Bitfury) adds pressure for execution on the HPC transition.
How the stock moved after the report
BEARISH VIEWSTOCK ABOVE ENTRY AT T+1- T+0 · Nov 2 $6.86entry
- T+1 · yesterday +18.37%α +18.07% · $8.12
- T+2 · todayOpen
- T+5 · in 5d Pending
- T+20 · in 27d Pending
- T+60 · in 3mo Pending
Price Chart
REPLAYWatch the reaction play outHow similar events traded
Executive Summary
Cipher Digital reported Q3 2026 revenue of $27M (below $38.2M consensus) and GAAP net income of $31.6M, driven by a $127M non-cash gain on warrant liability. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $10M vs positive $40.8M a year ago. Bitcoin mining revenue collapsed 71% YoY to $20.8M, though first HPC lease revenue of $5.9M was recognized. The Barber Lake lease expansion to 20 years adds $5.2B of incremental contracted revenue, totaling $9.1B.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 total revenue $26.7M, down 63% from $71.7M YoY, missing $38.2M consensus
- Bitcoin mining revenue $20.8M, down 71% YoY from $71.7M
- First HPC lease revenue recognized: $5.9M
- GAAP net income $31.6M vs net loss $3.3M YoY, driven by $127.2M non-cash gain on warrant liability
- Adjusted EBITDA negative $9.96M vs positive $40.8M YoY
- Barber Lake lease expanded to 20-year term, total contracted revenue $9.1B (incremental $5.2B)
- Completed $850M convertible notes offering due 2032, equitized ~$165.9M of 2030 notes (retired >90%)
- Development pipeline totals ~5.9 GW; conditional base load classification for 1 GW at Colchis
- EPS: basic $0.08, diluted ($0.22); consensus was ($0.16), diluted EPS includes convertible dilution
Financial Impact
Revenue miss of ~$11.5M (30% below consensus); bitcoin mining revenue decline of $50.9M YoY; negative EBITDA swing of $50.8M YoY
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Mining | $20.8M | -70.9% |
| HPC Leasing | $5.9M | Not reported |
Risk Factors
- Bitcoin mining revenue decline may continue as hash price remains pressured
- Negative adjusted EBITDA indicates operating cash burn; reliance on capital markets for funding
- Convertible note issuance ($850M) adds debt; diluted EPS negative due to share count impact
- Activist stake (Bitfury 13.2%) may push for strategic changes or board representation
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3393000 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 4, 2026 today | SC 13D/A | $6.58 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (+1.22%) |
Nov 2, 2026 2d ago | 8-K | No price | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | No price |
Nov 2, 2026 2d ago | Press Release | $6.86 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (+5.25%) |
Oct 29, 2026 6d ago | Institutional Cluster | $8.10 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (−19.75%) |
Oct 21, 2026 14d ago | SC 13G | $8.32 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (−21.88%) |
Oct 21, 2026 14d ago | SC 13G | $8.32 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (−21.88%) |
Oct 21, 2026 14d ago | SC 13G/A | $8.32 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (+21.88%) |
Oct 20, 2026 15d ago | Press Release | $9.13 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (−28.81%) |
Oct 16, 2026 19d ago | 8-K | $8.94 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (+27.29%) |
Oct 14, 2026 21d ago | 8-K | $9.94 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (+34.61%) |
US Market Status
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