The core bitcoin mining business is in structural decline while the HPC leasing transition is early-stage with only $5.9M of revenue recognized. Watch for the pace of HPC lease revenue ramp in Q4 and whether the company can achieve positive adjusted EBITDA as more data halls come online. The activist stake (13.2%) and recent insider selling via forward settlements add governance risk.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Cipher Digital reported Q3 2026 total revenue of $26.7M, down 63% YoY from $71.7M, driven by a 71% decline in bitcoin mining revenue to $20.8M partially offset by first-ever HPC lease revenue of $5.9M. GAAP net income was $31.6M (vs a $3.3M loss a year ago), but this was entirely due to a $127.2M non-cash gain on warrant liability revaluation; adjusted EBITDA was negative $10.0M vs positive $40.8M a year ago. The company recognized its first HPC lease revenue, expanded the Barber Lake lease to 20 years adding $5.2B of incremental contracted revenue, and completed an $850M convertible note offering, but the core bitcoin mining business continues to shrink rapidly.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 total revenue $26.7M, down 63% from $71.7M YoY
- Bitcoin mining revenue fell 71% YoY to $20.8M from $71.7M
- First HPC lease revenue of $5.9M recognized
- GAAP net income $31.6M vs loss of $3.3M YoY, driven by $127.2M warrant liability gain
- Adjusted EBITDA negative $10.0M vs positive $40.8M YoY
- Barber Lake lease expanded to 20-year term, adding $5.2B of incremental contracted revenue to $9.1B total
- Completed $850M 0.000% convertible senior notes due 2032 with capped call at $28.35/sh
- Equitized $165.9M of 1.750% convertible notes due 2030, retiring over 90% of those notes
- Received conditional base load classification for 1 GW at Colchis site
- Development pipeline totals approximately 5.9 GW
- Activist investor Bitfury Top HoldCo holds 13.2% stake, settled forward contracts reducing exposure
Financial Impact
Revenue declined $45M YoY (63%); adjusted EBITDA swung from +$40.8M to -$10.0M; GAAP net income positive only due to non-cash warrant gain
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Mining | $20.8M | -70.9% |
| HPC Leasing | $5.9M | Not reported |
Risk Factors
- Bitcoin mining revenue decline accelerating (71% YoY drop)
- Adjusted EBITDA deeply negative despite revenue diversification efforts
- Massive debt load of $6.7B against $3.6B cash/restricted cash, with $3.1B net debt
- Activist investor Bitfury reduced exposure through forward settlements in October 2026
- GAAP profitability entirely dependent on non-cash warrant liability gains
- Heavy share-based compensation ($26.6M in Q3 alone) diluting existing holders
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001819989-26-000047 |
| Document: cipherdigital_businessup.htm | 0001819989-26-000047 |
| Document: cifr-20261102.htm | 0001819989-26-000047 |
| Document: 0001819989-26-000047-index-headers.html | 0001819989-26-000047 |
| Document: 0001819989-26-000047-index.html | 0001819989-26-000047 |
| Document: 0001819989-26-000047.txt | 0001819989-26-000047 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001819989-26-000047 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 4, 2026 today | SC 13D/A | $6.58 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (+1.22%) |
Nov 2, 2026 2d ago | 8-K | No price | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | No price |
Nov 2, 2026 2d ago | Press Release | $6.86 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (+5.25%) |
Oct 29, 2026 6d ago | Institutional Cluster | $8.10 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (−19.75%) |
Oct 21, 2026 14d ago | SC 13G | $8.32 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (−21.88%) |
Oct 21, 2026 14d ago | SC 13G | $8.32 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (−21.88%) |
Oct 21, 2026 14d ago | SC 13G/A | $8.32 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (+21.88%) |
Oct 20, 2026 15d ago | Press Release | $9.13 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (−28.81%) |
Oct 16, 2026 19d ago | 8-K | $8.94 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (+27.29%) |
Oct 14, 2026 21d ago | 8-K | $9.94 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $6.50 (+34.61%) |
US Market Status
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