The Q1 beat and reaffirmed guidance support the stock, but the Calpine integration and data center deal pipeline are the key catalysts. Watch for the March 31 Business and Earnings Outlook call for 2026 guidance details and any updates on PJM capacity market reforms. The $5B buyback authorization provides downside support.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Constellation Energy reported Q1 2026 GAAP Net Income of $4.49 per share and Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings of $2.74 per share, up from $2.14 in Q1 2025, driven by the Calpine acquisition and favorable market conditions. The company affirmed its full-year 2026 Adjusted Operating Earnings guidance of $11.00-$12.00 per share and highlighted progress on data center co-location deals and new generation projects. The beat vs. consensus is notable, but the affirmation of existing guidance limits upside surprise.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 GAAP Net Income of $4.49 per share vs $0.38 in Q1 2025
- Q1 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings of $2.74 per share vs $2.14 in Q1 2025 (consensus $2.56, beat by 7.0%)
- Affirming full-year 2026 Adjusted Operating Earnings guidance of $11.00-$12.00 per share
- Revenue of $11.122B in Q1 2026 vs $6.788B in Q1 2025 (Calpine acquisition closed Jan 2026)
- Deployed ~$335M for share repurchases YTD; remaining authorization of $4.7B
- PUCT approved net metering for CyrusOne data center co-location at Freestone Energy Center
- Commissioned 105 MW Pastoria Solar Project and 460 MW Pin Oak Creek Energy Center
- Share buyback authorization increased to $5.0B
- Average diluted shares outstanding increased to 354M in Q1 2026 from 314M in Q1 2025 due to Calpine issuance
Financial Impact
Adjusted Operating EPS of $2.74 beat consensus of $2.56 by 7.0%; revenue of $11.122B vs consensus of $8.71B (beat by 27.7%)
Risk Factors
- Nuclear PTC phase-out if power prices rise above $44.75/MWh
- Integration risks from Calpine acquisition (higher debt, operational complexity)
- Regulatory uncertainty around PJM capacity market reforms and data center co-location approvals
- Higher planned nuclear refueling outage days in Q1 2026 (99 vs 88) reduced capacity factor
- Cash flow from operations declined to $425M in Q1 2026 from $1.6B in Q4 2025 due to collateral and working capital changes
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001868275-26-000063 |
| Document: ceg-20260511992.htm | 0001868275-26-000063 |
| Document: ceg-20260511.htm | 0001868275-26-000063 |
| Document: 0001868275-26-000063-index-headers.html | 0001868275-26-000063 |
| Document: 0001868275-26-000063-index.html | 0001868275-26-000063 |
| Document: 0001868275-26-000063.txt | 0001868275-26-000063 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001868275-26-000063 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 21, 2026 5w ago | 144 | $273.43 $254.71 | ▼ −6.85% | ▼ −6.86% | $251.42 (−8.05%) |
Aug 13, 2026 7w ago | Insider Buy | $278.64 $284.75 | ▲ +2.19% | ▲ +3.94% | $251.42 (−9.77%) |
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $261.10 $285.05 | ▲ +9.17% | ▲ +8.57% | $251.42 (−3.71%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $265.12 $290.04 | ▲ +9.40% | ▲ +10.00% | $251.42 (−5.17%) |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $267.24 $239.25 | ▼ −10.47% | ▼ −9.47% | $251.42 (−5.92%) |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | 424B4 | $272.65 $236.50 | ▲ +13.26% | ▲ +11.69% | $251.42 (+7.79%) |
May 11, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $299.69 $251.65 | ▼ −16.03% | ▼ −15.73% | $251.42 (−16.11%) |
Apr 20, 2026 23w ago | Court Ruling | $287.56 $262.00 | ▼ −8.89% | ▼ −13.11% | $251.42 (−12.57%) |
Mar 30, 2026 26w ago | DEFA14A | $279.25 $303.53 | ▲ +8.69% | ▼ −0.73% | $251.42 (−9.97%) |
Mar 19, 2026 28w ago | DEFA14A | $281.99 $287.56 | ▲ +1.98% | ▼ −7.34% | $251.42 (−10.84%) |
US Market Status
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