The Key Lake maintenance outage and higher production costs are transitory, but the narrowed guidance and higher cost outlook signal near-term margin pressure. Watch for Q4 delivery volumes and the Key Lake restart; the Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA improvement and AP1000 pipeline are positive offsets. The CRA tax dispute resolution remains a potential catalyst for cash recovery.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Cameco reported Q3 2026 net earnings of $43M (CAD) vs a net loss of $(0.1M) in Q3 2025, and adjusted net loss of $(2M) vs adjusted net earnings of $32M a year ago. Revenue was essentially flat at $619M vs $615M. The uranium segment saw gross profit fall 30% to $111M on lower production and higher unit costs, while Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA improved 15% to $143M (Cameco's share). The company narrowed its 2026 uranium production guidance to 19.5-20.5M lbs and raised its average unit cost of sales guidance to $67-70/lb, reflecting inflation and the longer Key Lake maintenance outage. Consensus EPS of $0.27 was not met on a comparable basis (the release reports CAD per share, not USD per ADS).
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 net earnings attributable to equity holders: $43M (CAD), vs $(0.1M) in Q3 2025.
- Q3 2026 adjusted net loss: $(2M), vs adjusted net earnings of $32M in Q3 2025.
- Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA: $267M, down 14% from $310M in Q3 2025.
- Uranium segment Q3 gross profit: $111M, down 30% from $158M in Q3 2025.
- Uranium production (Cameco's share) Q3: 3.5M lbs, down 20% from 4.4M lbs in Q3 2025.
- Uranium average realized price Q3: US$65.78/lb, up 6% from US$62.12/lb in Q3 2025.
- Uranium average unit cost of sales Q3: $72.17/lb, up 21% from $59.54/lb in Q3 2025.
- Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA (Cameco's share) Q3: $143M, up 15% from $124M in Q3 2025.
- 2026 uranium production guidance narrowed to 19.5M-20.5M lbs (previously 19.5M-21.5M lbs).
- 2026 uranium sales/delivery volume guidance narrowed to 29.5M-30.5M lbs (previously 29M-32M lbs).
- 2026 average unit cost of sales guidance raised to $67-$70/lb (previously $63-$67.50/lb).
- 2026 capital spending guidance lowered to $440M-$490M (previously $490M-$540M).
- Cash and cash equivalents at Sep 30, 2026: $860M; total debt: $1.0B; undrawn revolver: $1.0B.
- Annual dividend of $0.24 per common share declared, payable Dec 15, 2026.
- Cameco increased its Cigar Lake ownership to 57.418% via a $113M acquisition from TEPCO in July 2026.
Financial Impact
Q3 uranium gross profit fell $47M YoY on higher unit costs and lower volumes; Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA improved $19M. Full-year guidance changes are modest: production narrowed by 1M lbs at the top end, cost guidance raised by ~$4/lb at the midpoint.
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Uranium | $518.0M | -1.0% |
| Fuel Services | $95.1M | +4.1% |
Risk Factors
- Key Lake mill restart delays or commissioning issues could further reduce 2026 production and raise costs.
- Higher-than-expected inflation on labour, supplies, and reagents may continue to pressure unit costs.
- JV Inkai transportation and production risks could delay deliveries and impact cash flow.
- Uncertainty around US tariff application to uranium products could affect 2026 financial results.
- The CRA transfer pricing dispute remains unresolved for years 2007-2019, with $559M in cash/LCs held as security.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 10 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-439858 |
| Document: d106072dex993.htm | 0001193125-26-439858 |
| Document: d106072dex991.htm | 0001193125-26-439858 |
| Document: d106072dex994.htm | 0001193125-26-439858 |
| Document: d106072dex995.htm | 0001193125-26-439858 |
| Document: d106072d6k.htm | 0001193125-26-439858 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-439858-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-439858 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-439858-index.html | 0001193125-26-439858 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-439858.txt | 0001193125-26-439858 |
| Earnings Context (Synthetic; results releases only) | 0001193125-26-439858 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30, 2026 2d ago | 6-K | $74.48 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $76.91 (+3.26%) |
Oct 21, 2026 11d ago | Institutional Cluster | $78.93 $83.49 | ▲ +5.78% | ▲ +5.07% | $76.91 (−2.56%) |
Oct 12, 2026 20d ago | Institutional Cluster | $86.12 $80.70 | ▼ −6.29% | ▼ −4.80% | $76.91 (−10.69%) |
Oct 1, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $85.69 $87.12 | ▲ +1.67% | ▲ +0.37% | $76.91 (−10.25%) |
Jul 31, 2026 13w ago | 6-K | $86.38 $97.39 | ▲ +12.75% | ▲ +9.23% | $76.91 (−10.96%) |
Jul 15, 2026 15w ago | 6-K | $90.98 $90.37 | ▼ −0.67% | ▲ +0.31% | $76.91 (−15.46%) |
Jul 6, 2026 16w ago | 6-K | $97.50 $95.99 | ▼ −1.55% | ▼ −2.04% | $76.91 (−21.12%) |
Jul 2, 2026 17w ago | 6-K | $96.54 $95.74 | ▲ +0.83% | ▲ +1.76% | $76.91 (+20.33%) |
Jun 1, 2026 21w ago | 6-K | $120.51 $102.27 | ▼ −15.14% | ▼ −12.17% | $76.91 (−36.18%) |
May 28, 2026 22w ago | 6-K | $110.63 $114.56 | ▲ +3.55% | ▲ +3.60% | $76.91 (−30.48%) |
US Market Status
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