The Q2 miss is largely driven by a one-time Westinghouse comp and normal quarterly delivery variability, not deteriorating fundamentals. Watch for H2 2026 Westinghouse performance (management expects stronger Q4) and further uranium contracting activity. The raised 2026 guidance and unchanged production outlook support the bull case, but near-term earnings momentum is weak until Westinghouse recovers.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Cameco reported Q2 2026 net earnings of $25M (down 92% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $391M (down 42% YoY), primarily due to a tough comparison with Q2 2025 when Westinghouse recognized ~US$170M from the Dukovany project. Core uranium segment H1 earnings before tax rose 4% to $528M on higher realized prices, and the company raised its 2026 revenue and average realized price outlook. Production guidance remains unchanged at 19.5-21.5M lbs U3O8.
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 revenue $814M (down 7% YoY from $877M); H1 revenue $1,659M (flat vs $1,666M)
- Q2 net earnings $25M vs $321M in Q2 2025; adjusted net earnings $77M vs $308M
- Q2 adjusted EBITDA $391M vs $673M in Q2 2025; H1 adjusted EBITDA $899M vs $1,029M
- Uranium segment Q2 earnings before tax $170M (down 40% YoY); H1 $528M (up 4% YoY)
- Westinghouse contributed a net loss of $10M (our share) vs earnings of $126M in Q2 2025
- Uranium sales volume 7.1M lbs (down 18% YoY); average realized price $93.13/lb (C$, up 15%)
- 2026 production guidance unchanged: 19.5-21.5M lbs U3O8 (our share)
- Raised 2026 outlook: uranium revenue to $2,700M-$2,910M; average realized price to $91-$96/lb
- Cash and cash equivalents $1.1B; total debt $1.0B; $1.0B undrawn revolver
- Board member Dominique Minière stepped down effective July 26, 2026
Financial Impact
Q2 net earnings declined by $296M YoY, primarily from lower Westinghouse equity earnings (Dukovany comp) and lower uranium sales volumes. H1 net earnings down $235M. Adjusted EBITDA down $282M in Q2, $130M in H1.
Risk Factors
- Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA may not recover as expected in H2 2026
- Uranium production disruptions (flooding, operational issues) could impact delivery commitments
- US tariff imposition on Canadian uranium products could affect financial results
- CRA transfer pricing dispute remains unresolved for post-2006 tax years
- Geopolitical risks in Kazakhstan affecting JV Inkai production and deliveries
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 9 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-326768 |
| Document: d125942dex993.htm | 0001193125-26-326768 |
| Document: d125942dex991.htm | 0001193125-26-326768 |
| Document: d125942dex994.htm | 0001193125-26-326768 |
| Document: d125942dex995.htm | 0001193125-26-326768 |
| Document: d125942d6k.htm | 0001193125-26-326768 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-326768-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-326768 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-326768-index.html | 0001193125-26-326768 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-326768.txt | 0001193125-26-326768 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | 6-K | $86.38 $100.01 | ▲ +15.78% | ▲ +12.79% | $85.18 (−1.39%) |
Jul 15, 2026 11w ago | 6-K | $90.98 $99.03 | ▲ +8.85% | ▲ +6.51% | $85.18 (−6.38%) |
Jul 6, 2026 12w ago | 6-K | $97.50 $86.38 | ▼ −11.41% | ▼ −10.84% | $85.18 (−12.64%) |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | 6-K | $96.54 $88.23 | ▲ +8.61% | ▲ +8.19% | $85.18 (+11.77%) |
Jun 1, 2026 17w ago | 6-K | $120.51 $97.39 | ▼ −19.19% | ▼ −17.62% | $85.18 (−29.32%) |
May 28, 2026 18w ago | 6-K | $110.63 $104.49 | ▼ −5.55% | ▼ −2.41% | $85.18 (−23.00%) |
May 11, 2026 20w ago | 6-K | $120.14 $102.27 | ▲ +14.87% | ▲ +14.57% | $85.18 (+29.10%) |
May 8, 2026 21w ago | 6-K | $116.75 $103.44 | ▼ −11.40% | ▼ −11.42% | $85.18 (−27.04%) |
May 5, 2026 21w ago | 6-K | $114.46 $120.51 | ▲ +5.29% | ▲ +0.33% | $85.18 (−25.58%) |
Apr 2, 2026 26w ago | 6-K | $112.57 $123.04 | ▲ +9.30% | ▼ −0.58% | $85.18 (−24.33%) |
US Market Status
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