8-K ·Filed Apr 27, 2026

CBSH

COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/
MIXED
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed5mo ago SEC0000022356-26-000125
8-K context-dependent: Items 8.01
Actionable Insight ◆ Mixed

Watch for Visa exchange offer closing and CBSH's subsequent disclosure of the gain amount. The potential debt portfolio loss could offset the gain, so assess the net impact on Q2 earnings. The net effect remains uncertain until quantified.

DirectionMixed
Confidencemedium
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
CBSH ▲ +12.85% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call ✓ call won +12.85% · α vs SPY +8.86% · entry $51.97 → $58.65
Entry anchored
Apr 27, 03:59 PM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
-0.92%
call -0.92% · α -0.91%
$51.49
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
-0.44%
call -0.44% · α -2.13%
$51.74
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
+0.85%
call +0.85% · α -4.62%
$52.41
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
+12.85%
call +12.85% · α +8.86%
$58.65
settled 2mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Commerce Bancshares disclosed that it holds 411,723 Visa Class B-2 shares (carried at zero) and has tendered them in Visa's exchange offer. If the exchange closes in Q2 2026, a significant gain is expected. Separately, the company may sell a portion of its available-for-sale debt securities, potentially resulting in a significant loss in the same quarter. The net impact is uncertain and depends on market conditions.

Key Facts

  • Owns 411,723 Visa Class B-2 shares, carried at zero value on balance sheet as of March 31, 2026.
  • Tendered all Visa Class B-2 shares in Visa's exchange offer for Class B-3 and Class C common stock.
  • Expects to record a significant gain in Q2 2026 if the exchange closes.
  • May consider repositioning its available-for-sale debt securities portfolio, which could result in a significant loss in Q2 2026.
  • Timing and amount of loss depend on market conditions and the gain from Visa shares.

Financial Impact

Significant gain from Visa exchange (amount not disclosed) and potential significant loss from debt securities sale (amount not disclosed).

non-operating incomesecurities portfolio

Risk Factors

  • Loss from debt securities sale could exceed the Visa gain, resulting in a net negative impact.
  • Market conditions may affect both the Visa conversion value and the loss on debt securities.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
State Commercial Banks
Analyst Consensus
40% bullish (15 analysts)

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0000022356-26-000125
Document: 0000022356-26-000125-index-headers.html0000022356-26-000125
Document: 0000022356-26-000125-index.html0000022356-26-000125
Document: 0000022356-26-000125.txt0000022356-26-000125
13 reports for CBSH
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for CBSH — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 14, 2026
7w ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$59.71 $58.51▼ −2.01%▼ −0.03%$55.28 (−7.42%)
Aug 6, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$59.13 $58.37▼ −1.29%▼ −1.89%$55.28 (−6.51%)
Jul 31, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$59.27 $58.04▼ −2.08%▼ −5.06%$55.28 (−6.73%)
Jul 30, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$59.44 $58.05▼ −2.34%▼ −6.30%$55.28 (−7.00%)
Jul 29, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$60.33 $58.50▼ −3.03%▼ −8.05%$55.28 (−8.37%)
Jul 6, 2026
12w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$58.84 $59.67▲ +1.41%▲ +0.08%$55.28 (−6.05%)
May 7, 2026
21w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$52.48 $51.36▼ −2.13%▼ −5.27%$55.28 (+5.34%)
Apr 28, 2026
22w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$51.97 $52.41▲ +0.85%▼ −4.62%$55.28 (+6.37%)
Apr 27, 2026
22w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 5/10
$51.97 $52.41▲ +0.85%▼ −4.62%$55.28 (+6.37%)
Apr 21, 2026
23w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$50.59 $51.91▲ +2.61%▼ −2.31%$55.28 (+9.27%)
Showing 10 of 13

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (64h 9m)

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