The insider selling cluster is routine in scale and composition — CFO and CEO sales are partially tied to option exercises and tax obligations, not a coordinated bearish signal. Monitor for any upcoming earnings or credit events that could shift sentiment, but no immediate trading action is warranted based on this cluster alone.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
A cluster of insider selling at Commerce Bancshares over the past week, led by the CFO ($1.17M open-market sale) and CEO ($353K open-market sale), totaling $1.89M in open-market sales. The CFO's sale is the largest by dollar value and represents a notable insider disposition, though the total is ~0.02% of the $8.7B market cap, falling below the 0.1% materiality threshold. The CEO's transactions are primarily non-cash derivative exercises and tax withholdings, with the open-market sale being a partial monetization. This cluster appears driven by routine portfolio diversification and option exercise-related selling rather than a coordinated bearish signal, especially given the lack of any negative corporate events in the cross-filing context. The historical calibration shows past neutral reports on CBSH have had mixed T+20 outcomes (avg +0.53% P&L, 57% win rate), and the score-6 cell in this segment has a 46% observed up-move probability with a net negative asymmetric payoff (μ_l -12.5% vs μ_w +22.0%), suggesting a neutral-to-slightly-bearish bias is appropriate but not amplified.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- CFO Charles G. Kim sold 19,771 shares open-market for ~$1.17M on 2026-07-27, the largest single insider sale in the cluster
- CEO John W. Kemper sold 5,830 shares open-market for ~$353K on 2026-07-29, alongside derivative exercises and tax withholdings
- Total open-market selling value of ~$1.89M represents ~0.02% of CBSH's $8.7B market cap, well below the 0.1% materiality threshold
- No negative corporate events (restatements, late filings, restructuring) appear in the cross-filing context to suggest informed selling ahead of bad news
Financial Impact
Total insider open-market sales of ~$1.89M, or ~0.02% of market cap — immaterial relative to company size
Risk Factors
- Insider selling could accelerate if the stock appreciates further, but current levels are not alarming
- Historical calibration suggests neutral reports on CBSH have a 57% win rate at T+20 but negative alpha vs SPY (-1.61% avg), indicating stock may underperform the market modestly
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 SEC document filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | cluster-CBSH-1785521924346 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 14, 2026 7w ago | Institutional Cluster | $59.71 $58.51 | ▼ −2.01% | ▼ −0.03% | $55.28 (−7.42%) |
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $59.13 $58.37 | ▼ −1.29% | ▼ −1.89% | $55.28 (−6.51%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $59.27 $58.04 | ▼ −2.08% | ▼ −5.06% | $55.28 (−6.73%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $59.44 $58.05 | ▼ −2.34% | ▼ −6.30% | $55.28 (−7.00%) |
Jul 29, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $60.33 $58.50 | ▼ −3.03% | ▼ −8.05% | $55.28 (−8.37%) |
Jul 6, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $58.84 $59.67 | ▲ +1.41% | ▲ +0.08% | $55.28 (−6.05%) |
May 7, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $52.48 $51.36 | ▼ −2.13% | ▼ −5.27% | $55.28 (+5.34%) |
Apr 28, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $51.97 $52.41 | ▲ +0.85% | ▼ −4.62% | $55.28 (+6.37%) |
Apr 27, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $51.97 $52.41 | ▲ +0.85% | ▼ −4.62% | $55.28 (+6.37%) |
Apr 21, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $50.59 $51.91 | ▲ +2.61% | ▼ −2.31% | $55.28 (+9.27%) |
US Market Status
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