The large downward forecast revision on 2022-2026 vintages signals worsening credit performance in the core portfolio. Monitor the Q4 2026 forecast change and any further methodology adjustments; the new scorecard introduced in Q2 2026 has not yet demonstrated improved collection outcomes.
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Executive Summary
Credit Acceptance reported a GAAP net loss of $56.6 million for Q3 2026, versus net income of $108.2 million a year ago, driven by a $258.9 million increase in provision for credit losses after a downward methodology adjustment that reduced forecasted net cash flows by $291.2 million (2.5%). Adjusted net income rose 14.9% to $135.5 million, and loan volume surged 37.7% year-over-year, but the large forecast revision signals deteriorating portfolio performance on recent vintages.
Key Facts
- GAAP net loss of $56.6 million ($5.43 per diluted share) vs. net income of $108.2 million ($9.43 per diluted share) in Q3 2025.
- Total provision for credit losses increased 170.3% to $410.9 million from $152.0 million, including $281.9 million on forecast changes.
- Forecasted net cash flows from loan portfolio declined $291.2 million (2.5%) in Q3 2026, compared to a $58.6 million (0.5%) decline in Q3 2025, due to a methodology adjustment for 2022-2026 vintages.
- Adjusted net income (non-GAAP) was $135.5 million ($13.01 per diluted share), up 14.9% from $117.9 million ($10.28 per diluted share).
- Consumer Loan assignment volume rose 37.7% in units and 51.0% in dollars year-over-year.
- Share repurchases totaled 269,150 shares (2.6% of shares outstanding) for $161.6 million.
- Completed a $600.0 million asset-backed financing at lowest credit spreads since late 2021.
- Settled multi-state investigation and NY attorney general lawsuit without additional charges beyond amounts previously accrued.
Financial Impact
GAAP net income swung from +$108.2M to -$56.6M; provision for credit losses surged $258.9M; forecasted net cash flows declined $291.2M in the quarter.
Risk Factors
- Continued deterioration in forecasted collection rates on recent vintages could lead to further large provision charges.
- The methodology adjustment suggests the company's forecasting models have been systematically over-optimistic on newer loans.
- Rapid loan volume growth (37.7%) may be masking underlying credit quality issues if underwriting standards have loosened.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000885550-26-000200 |
| Document: cacc-20261029.htm | 0000885550-26-000200 |
| Document: 0000885550-26-000200-index-headers.html | 0000885550-26-000200 |
| Document: 0000885550-26-000200-index.html | 0000885550-26-000200 |
| Document: 0000885550-26-000200.txt | 0000885550-26-000200 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 29, 2026 3d ago | 8-K | $555.00 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $464.89 (+16.24%) |
Oct 29, 2026 3d ago | Press Release | $575.78 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $464.89 (+19.26%) |
Oct 22, 2026 10d ago | Press Release | $545.04 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $464.89 (−14.71%) |
Oct 6, 2026 26d ago | 144 | $536.58 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $464.89 (−13.36%) |
Oct 1, 2026 4w ago | Court Ruling | $527.50 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $464.89 (−11.87%) |
Sep 22, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $555.13 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $464.89 (−16.26%) |
Sep 18, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $564.27 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $464.89 (−17.61%) |
Sep 17, 2026 6w ago | Press Release | $590.41 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $464.89 (−21.26%) |
Sep 15, 2026 6w ago | Press Release | $601.54 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $464.89 (−22.72%) |
Sep 15, 2026 6w ago | Court Ruling | $601.54 | awaiting T+60 | awaiting T+60 | $464.89 (−22.72%) |
US Market Status
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