The Centurion ramp delay is the key negative catalyst — the 1.0M ton cut to 2026 met coal guidance and the push-out of the longwall move signal that the mine's contribution to free cash flow is at least a year behind schedule. Monitor Q2 2026 results for evidence that commissioning is complete and production is ramping toward full rates. The stock is likely to trade down on the earnings miss and guidance cut; watch for any analyst downgrades or price target revisions.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Peabody reported a weak Q1 2026 with a GAAP net loss of $32.4M (-$0.27/diluted share) vs. $34.4M profit ($0.27/share) a year ago, as Adjusted EBITDA fell 43% to $82.5M. The Seaborne Metallurgical segment swung to an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $7.0M due to Centurion commissioning delays, which also forced a cut to full-year met coal volume guidance from 3.5M to 2.5M tons. While thermal segments exceeded volume expectations, the core earnings miss and the significant Centurion setback dominate the narrative and are bearish for the stock.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of $32.4M (-$0.27/diluted share) vs. net income of $34.4M ($0.27/diluted share) in Q1 2025.
- Adjusted EBITDA fell 42.7% to $82.5M from $144.0M in the prior-year quarter.
- Seaborne Metallurgical segment reported an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $7.0M, including an ~$80M impact from Centurion commissioning issues.
- Centurion full-year 2026 volume guidance cut to 2.5M tons from the original 3.5M tons; longwall move pushed to early 2027.
- Revenue was $973.3M, up 3.9% from $937.0M in Q1 2025, but operating profit swung to a loss of $44.2M from a profit of $31.9M.
- Operating cash flow from continuing operations fell 74.6% to $30.6M from $120.5M in Q1 2025.
- Cash and cash equivalents declined to $492.5M from $575.3M at year-end 2025.
- Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.075 per share.
Financial Impact
Q1 net loss of $32.4M vs. prior-year profit of $34.4M; Adjusted EBITDA down $61.5M YoY; Centurion delays reduce 2026 met coal volume by 1.0M tons (~$138M in potential revenue at current realizations).
Risk Factors
- Further delays or cost overruns at Centurion could erode the mine's projected $2.1B NPV.
- Seaborne Metallurgical costs per ton of $141.72 exceeded revenue per ton of $138.28, indicating negative margins that could persist if commissioning issues continue.
- Declining cash balance ($492.5M vs. $575.3M) and reduced operating cash flow ($30.6M) limit financial flexibility.
- Coal price volatility, particularly in seaborne thermal and met markets, could further pressure earnings.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001064728-26-000022 |
| Document: btu-20260505.htm | 0001064728-26-000022 |
| Document: btu8k20260505ex992.htm | 0001064728-26-000022 |
| Document: 0001064728-26-000022-index-headers.html | 0001064728-26-000022 |
| Document: 0001064728-26-000022-index.html | 0001064728-26-000022 |
| Document: 0001064728-26-000022.txt | 0001064728-26-000022 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001064728-26-000022 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 16, 2026 10d ago | 8-K | $23.77 | awaiting T+60 | — | $22.36 (−5.93%) |
Sep 9, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $29.36 | awaiting T+60 | — | $22.36 (−23.84%) |
Aug 11, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $24.65 | awaiting T+60 | — | $22.36 (−9.29%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $20.82 $22.43 | ▼ −7.73% | ▼ −3.00% | $22.36 (−7.40%) |
Jul 7, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $22.67 $24.39 | ▲ +7.59% | ▲ +5.59% | $22.36 (−1.37%) |
Jul 1, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $22.20 $25.68 | ▲ +15.68% | ▲ +12.72% | $22.36 (+0.72%) |
Jun 15, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $26.03 $29.36 | ▲ +12.79% | ▲ +11.79% | $22.36 (−14.10%) |
Jun 2, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $29.62 $27.32 | ▼ −7.76% | ▼ −8.88% | $22.36 (−24.51%) |
May 28, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $27.05 $27.90 | ▲ +3.14% | ▲ +1.96% | $22.36 (−17.34%) |
May 28, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $29.10 $27.61 | ▼ −5.12% | ▼ −6.86% | $22.36 (−23.16%) |
US Market Status
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