Monitor Centurion's production ramp in Q3 2026 against the 500-700 thousand ton guidance; successful execution would validate the mine's long-term value thesis. The upcoming NARM Investor Day on September 23, 2026, may provide further updates on the U.S. thermal business.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Peabody Energy held a site tour at its Centurion Mine on August 11, 2026, presenting an investor slide deck. The presentation provided an operational update on the Centurion longwall transition, noting that shield racking issues have been resolved and production is ramping, with July output of 117,000 tons and 78,000 tons in the first 9 days of August. The company also outlined life-of-mine economics for Centurion, projecting ~$423 million in annual Adjusted EBITDA at a $225/tonne PHCC price assumption, and highlighted supportive long-term met coal demand from India.
Key Facts
- Centurion Mine shield racking issues fully addressed; longwall is square and in excellent shape.
- July 2026 full month production at Centurion: 117,000 tons.
- First 9 days of August 2026 production at Centurion: 78,000 tons.
- Centurion life-of-mine annual sales average: 4.7 million tons.
- Centurion mine life: 25+ years with 140 million tons of saleable coal reserves.
- Centurion NPV at January 1, 2026: $2.1 billion (assumes LT PHCC of $225/tonne at 13.5% discount rate).
- Illustrative life-of-mine scenario: implied annual Adjusted EBITDA of ~$423 million at $225/tonne PHCC.
- Peabody long-term view on premium hard coking coal (HCC) price: $225/tonne.
- India met coal imports increased 10% in 2025.
- India represents 60% of global blast furnace development pipeline.
- Centurion sales guidance: 500-700 thousand tons Q3'26, 1.5-2.0 million tons H2'26, 2.0-2.5 million tons FY26.
Financial Impact
Centurion mine projected to generate ~$423 million in annual Adjusted EBITDA at $225/tonne PHCC, with an NPV of $2.1 billion.
Risk Factors
- Centurion production ramp may face further geological or operational delays.
- Met coal prices are volatile and subject to global steel demand, trade policy, and Indian monsoon season impacts.
- Queensland government royalty rates are progressive and increase with coal prices, compressing margins at higher price levels.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001064728-26-000055 |
| Document: centurioninvestortourpre.htm | 0001064728-26-000055 |
| Document: 0001064728-26-000055-index-headers.html | 0001064728-26-000055 |
| Document: 0001064728-26-000055-index.html | 0001064728-26-000055 |
| Document: 0001064728-26-000055.txt | 0001064728-26-000055 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 16, 2026 11d ago | 8-K | $23.77 | awaiting T+60 | — | $22.36 (−5.93%) |
Sep 9, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $29.36 | awaiting T+60 | — | $22.36 (−23.84%) |
Aug 11, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $24.65 | awaiting T+60 | — | $22.36 (−9.29%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $20.82 $22.43 | ▼ −7.73% | ▼ −3.00% | $22.36 (−7.40%) |
Jul 7, 2026 16w ago | Press Release | $22.67 $24.39 | ▲ +7.59% | ▲ +5.59% | $22.36 (−1.37%) |
Jul 1, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $22.20 $25.68 | ▲ +15.68% | ▲ +12.72% | $22.36 (+0.72%) |
Jun 15, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $26.03 $29.36 | ▲ +12.79% | ▲ +11.79% | $22.36 (−14.10%) |
Jun 2, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $29.62 $27.32 | ▼ −7.76% | ▼ −8.88% | $22.36 (−24.51%) |
May 28, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $27.05 $27.90 | ▲ +3.14% | ▲ +1.96% | $22.36 (−17.34%) |
May 28, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $29.10 $27.61 | ▼ −5.12% | ▼ −6.86% | $22.36 (−23.16%) |
US Market Status
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