The severe earnings miss and lowered guidance, particularly the ongoing Centurion mine issues, are likely to pressure BTU shares near-term. However, the capital structure improvements (debt refinancing, reduced collateral) provide a floor. Monitor Q3 2026 Centurion production ramp-up and seaborne thermal pricing trends for signs of a turnaround.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Peabody Energy reported a significant Q2 2026 miss, with GAAP EPS of -$0.74 versus consensus of -$0.32, and revenue of $1.003B versus $1.02B consensus. Adjusted EBITDA plunged 74% YoY to $24M, driven by continued commissioning challenges at the Centurion mine and weak U.S. thermal volumes. The company also completed a complex capital restructuring, issuing $250M in new convertible notes while repurchasing $241.2M of existing notes, and reduced reclamation collateral by ~$350M. The combination of a severe earnings miss, lowered full-year guidance, and ongoing operational issues at Centurion is bearish, though the capital structure improvements provide a partial offset.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- GAAP EPS of -$0.74 missed consensus of -$0.32 by 131%
- Revenue of $1.003B missed consensus of $1.02B
- Adjusted EBITDA fell 74% YoY to $24.0M from $93.3M
- Seaborne Metallurgical segment posted -$17.0M Adjusted EBITDA due to Centurion issues
- Powder River Basin swung to -$7.1M Adjusted EBITDA from +$43.0M YoY
- Centurion mine annual sales target cut to 2.0-2.5M tons from prior 2.5M tons
- Issued $250M of 0.5% 2031 convertible notes; repurchased $241.2M of 2028 notes
- Reduced restricted cash and collateral by ~$350M via revised surety arrangements
- Full-year Seaborne Met cost guidance raised by ~$10/ton; PRB costs raised by $0.25/ton
- Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.075/share
Financial Impact
Q2 2026 GAAP net loss of -$90.6M vs -$27.6M loss in prior-year quarter; Adjusted EBITDA of $24.0M vs $93.3M YoY; Revenue of $1.003B vs $890.1M YoY
Risk Factors
- Centurion mine fails to reach targeted production rates in H2 2026
- Further deterioration in coal demand or pricing
- Additional operational issues at U.S. thermal mines due to weather
- Potential for further dilution if additional convertible notes are issued
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001064728-26-000038 |
| Document: btu-20260729.htm | 0001064728-26-000038 |
| Document: btu8k20260729ex992.htm | 0001064728-26-000038 |
| Document: 0001064728-26-000038-index-headers.html | 0001064728-26-000038 |
| Document: 0001064728-26-000038-index.html | 0001064728-26-000038 |
| Document: 0001064728-26-000038.txt | 0001064728-26-000038 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001064728-26-000038 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 16, 2026 10d ago | 8-K | $23.77 | awaiting T+60 | — | $22.36 (−5.93%) |
Sep 9, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $29.36 | awaiting T+60 | — | $22.36 (−23.84%) |
Aug 11, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $24.65 | awaiting T+60 | — | $22.36 (−9.29%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $20.82 $22.43 | ▼ −7.73% | ▼ −3.00% | $22.36 (−7.40%) |
Jul 7, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $22.67 $24.39 | ▲ +7.59% | ▲ +5.59% | $22.36 (−1.37%) |
Jul 1, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $22.20 $25.68 | ▲ +15.68% | ▲ +12.72% | $22.36 (+0.72%) |
Jun 15, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $26.03 $29.36 | ▲ +12.79% | ▲ +11.79% | $22.36 (−14.10%) |
Jun 2, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $29.62 $27.32 | ▼ −7.76% | ▼ −8.88% | $22.36 (−24.51%) |
May 28, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $27.05 $27.90 | ▲ +3.14% | ▲ +1.96% | $22.36 (−17.34%) |
May 28, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $29.10 $27.61 | ▼ −5.12% | ▼ −6.86% | $22.36 (−23.16%) |
US Market Status
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