Contrarian upgrade from a low-accuracy firm ahead of earnings adds noise, not signal. Wait for post-earnings clarity given mixed institutional flows and declining EPS revisions. The $225 PT is aggressive relative to fundamentals unless guidance surges.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
UBS double upgraded NVDA from Neutral to Buy with a new $225 PT, representing 21% upside from current levels. The move follows Wells Fargo and Piper Sandler upgrades in the past two weeks. Consensus remains mixed with only 40% Buy-rated (20/50), below average conviction. UBS’s accuracy is 50% (1/2), below peer median of 55%. Analyst momentum is positive: 3 upgrades in 30 days, 0 downgrades. EPS estimates are trending down over 30 days: -2 net revisions. Institutional activity shows divergence — FMR doubled down while Renaissance trimmed -58.6%. Earnings due in 7 days. Contrarian call from low-accuracy firm ahead of event limits conviction.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 50 total analysts, 20 rate Buy/Strong Buy (40%), 22 Hold (44%), 2 Sell/Strong Sell (4%). Consensus is below average in bullishness compared to sector median of 52% Buy ratings. Directionally, consensus is shifting slightly positive with 3 upgrades in the last 30 days and no downgrades.
Consensus price target is $209.36 (mean), $206.50 (median), with a high of $275 and low of $150. Current price is $185.95, implying 12.5% upside to mean. UBS’s $225 PT is 7.2% above the mean and 9.1% above median, placing it in the top quartile of targets. Prior UBS PT was $185, now 21.6% higher.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | UBS | upgrade | Buy | $225.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | Wells Fargo | upgrade | Overweight | $250.00 |
| 2026-04-14 | Piper Sandler | upgrade | Overweight | $214.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $190.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Truist Securities | maintain | Hold | $189.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $200.00 |
| 2026-04-02 | HC Wainwright & Co. | maintain | Buy | $237.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Canaccord Genuity | maintain | Buy | $245.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $275.00 |
| 2026-03-17 | HSBC | maintain | Reduce | $150.00 |
In the past 30 days, 3 analysts upgraded NVDA, 0 downgraded. EPS revisions show negative momentum: over 30 days, +1 up, -3 down for current quarter; +3 up, -3 down for next year. Current quarter EPS estimate has declined from $3.04 to $3.01, suggesting weakening near-term expectations despite stock upgrades.
Firm Track Record — UBS
UBS accuracy: 55% on 5083 calls | avg return: 4.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | 100% | 2/2 | 13% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 83% | 5/6 | 5.5% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 71% | 5/7 | 1.6% | top tier |
| Wedbush | 67% | 4/6 | 2.1% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 67% | 2/3 | 2.5% | top tier |
| HC Wainwright & Co. | 57% | 4/7 | 1.4% | above average |
| UBS | 50% | 1/2 | 0.6% | below average |
| Barclays | 50% | 2/4 | -2.8% | below average |
| Canaccord Genuity | 50% | 1/2 | -2.1% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 1/2 | -0.1% | below average |
UBS has a 50% accuracy rate (1 correct out of 2 rated calls) with an average return of +0.6%, ranking below average among 15 covering firms. The median firm accuracy is 55% (2,806/5,083). Top performers include Jefferies (100%, 2/2) and Morgan Stanley (83%, 5/6). UBS’s track record adds limited weight to this call.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Apr 29, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $4.36 | $3.95 — $5.04 | $2.4B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $15.83 | $14.34 — $17.60 | $9.3B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0q | $3.01 | $1.66 — $4.68 | $2.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $15.58 | $14.02 — $16.33 | $9.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Institutional activity is split: FMR LLC doubled position (+632%), Norges Bank initiated new $464M stake, and UBS Group added +35.1%. But Renaissance Technologies cut -58.6% and Wells Fargo & Co. trimmed -32.3%. No insider trades reported. Congressional buys: one small buy by Rep. Cisneros ($1K–$15K). Short interest is elevated at 59.0% short ratio, indicating high bearish positioning ahead of earnings.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 3, 2026 28d ago | Press Release | $220.83 $217.36 | ▼ −1.57% | ▼ −0.36% | $219.88 (−0.43%) |
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | Press Release | $224.51 $217.15 | ▼ −3.28% | ▼ −2.13% | $219.88 (−2.06%) |
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $207.94 $209.83 | ▲ +0.91% | ▲ +0.51% | $219.88 (+5.74%) |
Jul 14, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $191.95 $199.95 | ▲ +4.17% | ▲ +5.46% | $219.88 (+14.55%) |
Jul 13, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $191.95 $199.95 | ▲ +4.17% | ▲ +5.46% | $219.88 (+14.55%) |
Jul 13, 2026 11w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jun 17, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $196.58 $201.96 | ▲ +2.74% | ▲ +4.40% | $219.88 (+11.85%) |
Jun 8, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $192.62 $198.64 | ▲ +3.13% | ▲ +1.01% | $219.88 (+14.15%) |
Jun 4, 2026 17w ago | Press Release | $195.82 $199.96 | ▲ +2.12% | ▲ +4.67% | $219.88 (+12.29%) |
Jun 1, 2026 17w ago | Press Release | $192.22 $195.34 | ▲ +1.63% | ▲ +4.38% | $219.88 (+14.39%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access