The Erste downgrade alone carries limited weight given the firm's below-average accuracy, but the concurrent heavy insider selling is a material bearish signal. Traders should monitor for further insider activity and consider hedging long positions against the bullish consensus.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Erste Group double-downgraded Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) from Buy to Hold on July 7, 2026, with no price target provided. The firm holds a 55% accuracy rate on 20 calls with an average return of 3.8%, placing it below top-tier peers like Cantor Fitzgerald (100% on 6 calls, +23.9% avg return). The broader consensus remains overwhelmingly bullish: 52 of 57 analysts rate AVGO Buy or Strong Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell. The mean price target of $523.73 implies 40% upside from the current $373.90, with a high of $650 and a low of $215.88. Momentum is mixed — 0 upgrades and 1 downgrade in the past 30 days, but EPS revisions are strongly positive (25 upward vs 9 downward for the current quarter, 32 vs 8 for the fiscal year). Insider selling is heavy: over $30M in sales by executives Brazeal, Samueli, and Page in late June, aligning with the downgrade. Short interest stands at a high 30.7% of float. The downgrade is a contrarian call from a low-accuracy firm, but the insider cluster adds bearish weight. Traders should weigh the bullish consensus and rising estimates against the insider sell-off and this downgrade.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 57 analysts covering AVGO, 17 rate it Strong Buy, 35 Buy, and 5 Hold — 0 Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus is strongly bullish, with 91% of analysts at Buy or Strong Buy.
The mean price target is $523.73, median $525, high $650, low $215.88. At $373.90, AVGO trades 28.5% below the mean target, implying 40% upside. Erste Group did not provide a price target.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Erste Group | downgrade | Hold | — |
| 2026-06-04 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $485.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $530.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | Mizuho | maintain | Outperform | — |
| 2026-06-04 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $535.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | Macquarie | downgrade | Neutral | $437.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $580.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | Jefferies | maintain | Buy | $550.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | DA Davidson | maintain | Neutral | $400.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | TD Cowen | reiterate | Buy | $500.00 |
In the past 30 days, there has been 1 downgrade (Erste Group) and 0 upgrades. However, EPS revisions are net positive: 25 upward vs 9 downward for the current quarter, 32 vs 8 for the current fiscal year, and 37 vs 2 for next year. Estimates are being revised higher across all horizons.
Firm Track Record — Erste Group
Erste Group accuracy: 55% on 20 calls | avg return: 3.8%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 100% | 6/6 | 23.9% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 100% | 3/3 | 17.6% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 83% | 5/6 | 15.1% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 80% | 4/5 | 8.2% | top tier |
| Rosenblatt | 75% | 9/12 | 13.1% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 75% | 6/8 | 10% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 71% | 5/7 | 12.4% | top tier |
| Mizuho | 69% | 9/13 | 10.3% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 4/6 | 9.4% | top tier |
| Benchmark | 67% | 4/6 | 15% | top tier |
Erste Group has a 55% accuracy rate on 20 scored calls with an average return of 3.8%. This is below the top-tier firms covering AVGO: Cantor Fitzgerald (100% on 6 calls, +23.9% avg return), Wells Fargo (100% on 3, +17.6%), and Evercore ISI (83% on 6, +15.1%). Erste ranks near the bottom among firms with available data.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $3.24 | $3.08 — $3.33 | $29.4B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.87 | $3.60 — $4.12 | $34.9B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $11.62 | $11.23 — $12.14 | $106.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $19.40 | $16.22 — $22.01 | $172.2B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show a large cluster of sells: $9.7M by Brazeal Mark David, $8.8M and $12.6M and $11.7M by SAMUELI HENRY, and $599K by PAGE JUSTINE, all in late June 2026. Congressional activity is mixed: two small sells by Rep. David Taylor, one sell by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, and one buy by Rep. Ro Khanna. Institutional changes show large adds by Empowered Funds (+64.9%, $216M) and OP Asset Management (+48.2%, $329M), but trims by OneDigital (-38.5%) and a near-exit by Cardano Risk Management (-89.6%). Short interest is 30.7% of float, elevated. The insider sells converge with the bearish downgrade, while institutional adds and rising EPS estimates diverge.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 10, 2026 21d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Sep 3, 2026 28d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Aug 21, 2026 6w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $368.45 $362.66 | ▼ −1.57% | ▼ −1.05% | $347.86 (−5.59%) |
Aug 9, 2026 7w ago | Institutional Cluster | $422.40 $368.56 | ▼ −12.75% | ▼ −11.83% | $347.86 (−17.65%) |
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $392.23 $370.16 | ▲ +5.63% | ▲ +6.87% | $347.86 (+11.31%) |
Jul 15, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $394.28 $415.88 | ▲ +5.48% | ▲ +3.14% | $347.86 (−11.77%) |
Jul 15, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $394.28 $415.88 | ▲ +5.48% | ▲ +3.14% | $347.86 (−11.77%) |
Jul 10, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $384.05 $422.40 | ▲ +9.99% | ▲ +6.80% | $347.86 (−9.42%) |
Jul 10, 2026 11w ago | 144 | $384.05 $422.40 | ▲ +9.99% | ▲ +6.80% | $347.86 (−9.42%) |
Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | 144 | $401.11 $420.57 | ▼ −4.85% | ▼ −2.61% | $347.86 (+13.28%) |
US Market Status
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