The double upgrade from Macquarie adds bullish momentum to an already positive consensus, but the insider selling and 30.7% short interest create a tug-of-war. Traders should watch for a short squeeze if the stock breaks above $400, but avoid chasing into heavy insider liquidation.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Macquarie double-upgraded Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) from Neutral to Outperform with a $490 price target, implying 33.4% upside from the current $367.24. The call is contrarian relative to the consensus — 91% of 57 analysts rate AVGO Buy or Strong Buy, and the mean target is $525.97. Macquarie’s 55% accuracy on 441 calls and 5.6% average return place it below the top-tier firms covering AVGO (Cantor Fitzgerald, Wells Fargo, Evercore ISI all above 80% accuracy). The upgrade comes amid a bullish 30-day momentum: 2 upgrades, 0 downgrades, and EPS revisions tilted higher (25 up vs 9 down for the current quarter). Insider selling by EVP Brazeal ($29.2M in July) and director Delly ($728K) diverges from the bullish analyst signal, but institutional activity is mixed — Norges Bank opened a $24.9B position while Third Point exited. Short interest is elevated at 30.7% of float, suggesting potential squeeze fuel. Bottom line: a high-conviction double upgrade from a mid-tier firm, but the insider selling and high short interest warrant caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 57 analysts covering AVGO, 52 (91%) rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 (9%) rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, making Macquarie’s upgrade from Neutral to Outperform a convergence with the majority view.
Current price: $367.24. Mean target: $525.97 (implied upside 43.2%). Median target: $527.50. High target: $675. Low target: $215.88. Macquarie’s $490 target is 6.8% below the mean, placing it in the lower half of the consensus range.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Macquarie | upgrade | Outperform | $490.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | Raymond James | maintain | Outperform | $475.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $578.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $475.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $520.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | StoneX | reiterate | Buy | $545.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $505.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Sector Perform | $400.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | Keybanc | reiterate | Overweight | $575.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | Rosenblatt | maintain | Buy | $600.00 |
In the last 30 days, AVGO has seen 2 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are positive: current quarter estimates saw 25 upward revisions vs 9 downward in the last 30 days, and next quarter saw 24 up vs 8 down. The trend is clearly bullish.
Firm Track Record — Macquarie
Macquarie accuracy: 55% on 441 calls | avg return: 5.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 100% | 6/6 | 23.9% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 100% | 3/3 | 17.6% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 83% | 5/6 | 15.1% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 80% | 4/5 | 8.2% | top tier |
| Rosenblatt | 75% | 9/12 | 13.1% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 75% | 6/8 | 10% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 71% | 5/7 | 12.4% | top tier |
| Mizuho | 69% | 9/13 | 10.3% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 4/6 | 9.4% | top tier |
| Benchmark | 67% | 4/6 | 15% | top tier |
Macquarie has a 55% accuracy rate on 441 scored calls with a 5.6% average return, placing it below the top-tier firms covering AVGO. Best-performing firms: Cantor Fitzgerald (100% on 6 calls, +23.9% avg return) and Wells Fargo (100% on 3 calls, +17.6%). Worst: Susquehanna (60% on 5 calls, +7.1%). Macquarie’s track record is average, but the double upgrade signals conviction.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $3.24 | $3.08 — $3.33 | $29.4B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.88 | $3.60 — $4.12 | $35.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $11.63 | $11.16 — $12.14 | $106.1B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $19.57 | $16.22 — $22.01 | $173.4B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling diverges: EVP Brazeal sold $29.2M in July, director Delly sold $728K, and EVP Page sold $599K. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank opened a $24.9B position (bullish), while Harding Loevner trimmed 33.5% and Third Point exited. Congressional buys from Reps. Taylor and Allen (small amounts) are negligible. Short interest is 30.7% of float, extremely high — a potential squeeze catalyst if the stock rallies.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 10, 2026 21d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Sep 3, 2026 28d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Aug 21, 2026 6w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $368.45 $362.66 | ▼ −1.57% | ▼ −1.05% | $343.64 (−6.73%) |
Aug 9, 2026 7w ago | Institutional Cluster | $422.40 $368.56 | ▼ −12.75% | ▼ −11.83% | $343.64 (−18.65%) |
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $392.23 $370.16 | ▲ +5.63% | ▲ +6.87% | $343.64 (+12.39%) |
Jul 15, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $394.28 $415.88 | ▲ +5.48% | ▲ +3.14% | $343.64 (−12.84%) |
Jul 15, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $394.28 $415.88 | ▲ +5.48% | ▲ +3.14% | $343.64 (−12.84%) |
Jul 10, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $384.05 $422.40 | ▲ +9.99% | ▲ +6.80% | $343.64 (−10.52%) |
Jul 10, 2026 11w ago | 144 | $384.05 $422.40 | ▲ +9.99% | ▲ +6.80% | $343.64 (−10.52%) |
Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | 144 | $401.11 $420.57 | ▼ −4.85% | ▼ −2.61% | $343.64 (+14.33%) |
US Market Status
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