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8-K ·Filed Sep 23, 2026

ASTH

Astrana Health, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Impact 4/10
Horizonweeks Processed1mo ago SEC0001104659-26-109822
8-K context-dependent: Items 7.01
Actionable Insight • Neutral

Monitor upcoming Q3 2026 earnings for progress toward raised Adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint of $267.5M and continued G&A leverage. The presentation emphasizes organic growth algorithm and risk progression — watch for membership growth and full-risk conversion rates in subsequent quarters.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
ASTH ▲ +8.77% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call +8.77% · α vs SPY +8.08% · entry $34.34 → $37.35
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Latest observation: T+22 +18.92% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 23, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+0.29%
call +0.29% · α +0.37%
$34.44
settled 5w ago
T+5d
+3.58%
call +3.58% · α +4.26%
$35.57
settled 28d ago
T+20d
+8.77%
call +8.77% · α +8.08%
$37.35
settled 7d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 7w

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Executive Summary

Astrana Health filed an updated corporate investor presentation (September 2026) under Item 7.01 Regulation FD. The presentation highlights Q2 2026 results with revenue of $972.5M and Adjusted EBITDA of $68.9M, and raises FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $255-$280M (from prior range) while reaffirming revenue guidance of $3.8B-$4.1B and free cash flow guidance of $105-$132.5M. The filing is a routine investor materials update with no new material financial disclosures beyond previously reported Q2 results.

Key Facts

  • Q2 2026 revenue: $972.5M (up from $654.8M in Q2 2025)
  • Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $68.9M (up from $48.1M in Q2 2025)
  • Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS Diluted EPS: $0.80 (up from $0.55 in Q2 2025)
  • FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $255M-$280M (from prior range); revenue guidance reaffirmed at $3.8B-$4.1B
  • Free cash flow guidance for FY2026 reaffirmed at $105M-$132.5M; YTD FCF through Q2 2026 was $92.9M
  • G&A as % of revenue improved 210 bps YoY to 5.6% in Q2 2026
  • Approximately 1.5M members in value-based arrangements; 20,000+ providers; 20+ payer partners
  • 81% of Q2 2026 capitation revenue from full-risk arrangements

Financial Impact

FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $255M-$280M midpoint $267.5M; revenue guidance unchanged at $3.8B-$4.1B; free cash flow guidance unchanged at $105M-$132.5M

revenueadjusted_ebitdafree_cash_flowgaap_revenueadjusted_eps

Risk Factors

  • Medicare Advantage rate headwinds for 2027 (CMS rate announcement) could pressure revenue growth
  • Medicaid/Exchange headwinds cited as a -7% drag on 2026E Adjusted EBITDA bridge
  • Integration of Prospect Health acquisition and achievement of $12-15M synergy target
  • Material weakness in internal control over financial reporting noted in forward-looking statements

Investment Themes

Services

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-109822
Document: tm2625986d1_8k.htm0001104659-26-109822
Document: 0001104659-26-109822-index-headers.html0001104659-26-109822
Document: 0001104659-26-109822-index.html0001104659-26-109822
Document: 0001104659-26-109822.txt0001104659-26-109822
7 reports for ASTH
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

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Reports for ASTH — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Sep 23, 2026
4w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$34.34 $37.35▲ +8.77%▲ +8.08%$36.94 (+7.57%)
Sep 23, 2026
4w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$34.34 $37.35▼ −8.77%▼ −8.08%$36.94 (−7.57%)
Sep 15, 2026
6w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$38.35 $37.87▼ −1.25%▼ −4.23%$36.94 (−3.68%)
Jul 14, 2026
15w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$47.04 $35.79▼ −23.92%▼ −26.26%$36.94 (−21.47%)
Jul 13, 2026
15w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$47.64 $37.47▼ −21.35%▼ −24.53%$36.94 (−22.46%)
Jun 10, 2026
19w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$39.85 $46.81▲ +17.47%▲ +15.57%$36.94 (−7.30%)
Apr 17, 2026
27w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$31.50 $39.16▲ +24.32%▲ +18.95%$36.94 (+17.27%)
Showing 7 of 7

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Report published Sep 23, 2026