The raised guidance and strong Q2 2026 execution (revenue +48% YoY, Adj. EBITDA +43% YoY) reinforce the growth narrative. Monitor upcoming Q3 2026 results for continued margin expansion and medical cost ratio trends, especially as the Prospect Health integration scales. The 210bps G&A improvement signals operating leverage is materializing.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Astrana Health filed an updated investor presentation via an 8-K (Items 7.01, 9.01) that reaffirms and raises FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $255M-$280M (from a prior midpoint of ~$267.5M) on revenue of $3.8B-$4.1B. The presentation highlights Q2 2026 revenue of $972.5M (+48% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA of $68.9M (+43% YoY), and a 210bps YoY improvement in G&A efficiency to 5.6% of revenue. The filing is a routine investor relations update with no new material events beyond the guidance raise already disclosed in prior quarters.
Key Facts
- FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $255M-$280M (midpoint $267.5M), up from FY2025 actual of $205.4M.
- Q2 2026 revenue of $972.5M (+48% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of $68.9M (+43% YoY).
- G&A expense improved 210bps YoY to 5.6% of revenue in Q2 2026, driven by AI-native operating platform.
- ~1.5M value-based care members, 20,000+ providers, 99% annual provider retention.
- 81% of Q2 2026 capitation revenue from full-risk arrangements, up from 19% in 2021.
- Free cash flow guidance raised to $105M-$132.5M for FY2026; YTD FCF of $92.9M.
Financial Impact
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $255M-$280M (midpoint $267.5M), representing ~30% YoY growth from FY2025 actual of $205.4M. Revenue guidance of $3.8B-$4.1B implies ~25% YoY growth.
Risk Factors
- Integration risk from the Prospect Health acquisition and other recent deals.
- Medical cost ratio volatility in value-based care contracts, especially in newer markets.
- Material weakness in internal control over financial reporting noted in forward-looking statements, with remediation timeline uncertain.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (ASTH) — Batch item 1 | 0001104659-26-107730 |
| Document: tm2625392d1_8k.htm | 0001104659-26-107730 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-107730-index-headers.html | 0001104659-26-107730 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-107730-index.html | 0001104659-26-107730 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-107730.txt | 0001104659-26-107730 |
| 8-K Filing (ASTH) — Batch item 6 | 0001104659-26-107730 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 23, 2026 4w ago | 8-K | $34.34 $37.35 | ▲ +8.77% | ▲ +8.08% | $36.78 (+7.11%) |
Sep 23, 2026 4w ago | 8-K | $34.34 $37.35 | ▼ −8.77% | ▼ −8.08% | $36.78 (−7.11%) |
Sep 15, 2026 6w ago | 8-K | $38.35 $37.87 | ▼ −1.25% | ▼ −4.23% | $36.78 (−4.09%) |
Jul 14, 2026 14w ago | Press Release | $47.04 $35.79 | ▼ −23.92% | ▼ −26.26% | $36.78 (−21.81%) |
Jul 13, 2026 15w ago | 8-K | $47.64 $37.47 | ▼ −21.35% | ▼ −24.53% | $36.78 (−22.80%) |
Jun 10, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $39.85 $46.81 | ▲ +17.47% | ▲ +15.57% | $36.78 (−7.70%) |
Apr 17, 2026 27w ago | DEFA14A | $31.50 $39.16 | ▲ +24.32% | ▲ +18.95% | $36.78 (+16.76%) |
US Market Status
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