The record top line is overshadowed by the fuel-driven profit collapse. FY26 guidance implies H2 margin recovery to 24-26% EBITDAR margin vs 17.9% in Q2 — the fuel price assumption ($3.0-3.2/gal) is the critical variable. Watch the JCA antitrust appeal hearing on June 23, 2026 as a potential catalyst. Earnings call on July 14, 2026 for color on fuel hedging and World Cup demand normalization.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Grupo Aeromexico's Q2 2026 results show record revenue of $1.48B (+12.6% YoY), but fuel costs surged 79.9% to $493.8M, crushing operating income to $67.9M (down 70.5% YoY) and producing a net loss of $57.7M. The company guided for FY26 revenue of ~$6.05-6.12B (+13-14% YoY) with improving margins in H2, and maintains healthy liquidity of $1.2B (21.8% of LTM revenue). The cross-filing 20-F context noted a 4.6% FY2025 revenue decline and pending JCA antitrust appeal oral argument on June 23, 2026.
Key Facts
- Record Q2 2026 total revenue of $1.479B, up 12.6% YoY vs $1.314B
- Operating income crashed 70.5% to $67.9M from $230M, with operating margin sliding from 17.5% to 4.6%
- Net loss of $57.7M vs net income of $68M in Q2 2025
- Fuel expense surged 79.9% to $493.8M, with fuel cost per gallon rising 79.6% to $4.20
- Adjusted EBITDAR fell 35.5% to $264.2M, margin contracting to 17.9% from 31.2%
- FY26 guidance: revenue $6.05B-$6.12B (+13-14% YoY), operating margin 11-13%, adjusted EBITDAR margin 24-26%
- Liquidity of $1.2B (21.8% of LTM revenue), net leverage at 1.96x
- Cross-filing context: FY2025 20-F showed 4.6% revenue decline to $5.36B, JCA antitrust appeal oral argument June 23, 2026
Financial Impact
Revenue up +$165M YoY, but fuel costs up +$219.3M; net income swung from +$68M to -$57.7M
Risk Factors
- Fuel price volatility — 80% YoY increase already crushed margins despite robust revenue
- JCA antitrust immunity appeal outcome could materially affect U.S.-Mexico network competitiveness
- Peso strength (up 11.3% YoY average) inflates dollar-denominated cost base
- Domestic passenger demand declined 2.7% YoY in Q2, with June traffic down 13% domestic due to World Cup shift
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 8 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-302103 |
| Document: d112634dex993.htm | 0001193125-26-302103 |
| Document: d112634dex992.htm | 0001193125-26-302103 |
| Document: d112634dex994.htm | 0001193125-26-302103 |
| Document: d112634d6k.htm | 0001193125-26-302103 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-302103-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-302103 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-302103-index.html | 0001193125-26-302103 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-302103.txt | 0001193125-26-302103 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 19, 2026 6d ago | 6-K | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (−5.71%) |
Oct 19, 2026 6d ago | 6-K | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (−5.71%) |
Oct 19, 2026 6d ago | Press Release | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (−5.71%) |
Sep 30, 2026 25d ago | Press Release | $14.92 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (+5.97%) |
Sep 30, 2026 25d ago | Press Release | $14.92 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (−5.97%) |
Sep 14, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $14.75 $15.88 | ▲ +7.66% | ▲ +4.94% | $14.03 (−4.88%) |
Aug 20, 2026 9w ago | 6-K | $13.72 $15.95 | ▲ +16.25% | ▲ +16.78% | $14.03 (+2.26%) |
Aug 16, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $15.71 $14.75 | ▼ −6.11% | ▼ −4.13% | $14.03 (−10.69%) |
Aug 4, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $16.13 $14.56 | ▼ −9.73% | ▼ −8.50% | $14.03 (−13.02%) |
Jul 13, 2026 14w ago | Press Release | $15.65 $15.74 | ▲ +0.58% | ▼ −1.92% | $14.03 (−10.35%) |
US Market Status
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