Monitor 4Q26 earnings for fuel cost trajectory and margin recovery. The loyalty breakage update provides a recurring revenue tailwind, but sustained jet fuel prices above $4.5/gallon could pressure guidance. The JCA antitrust immunity with Delta remains stayed pending appeal (oral argument June 2026) — any resolution could materially impact competitive dynamics.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Grupo Aeromexico reported record quarterly revenue of $1.6 billion for 3Q26, a 13.6% YoY increase, driven by strong international markets and a loyalty program breakage update that added $48.7 million in revenue. However, operating income fell 25% to $190 million and net income dropped 58% to $41 million, as fuel expense surged 57.6% to $469 million, far exceeding guidance. The company guides for 4Q26 revenue growth of 14-16% YoY but expects a lower adjusted EBITDAR margin of 19.5-21.5%, reflecting persistent fuel cost headwinds.
Key Facts
- Record quarterly total revenue of $1.6 billion, up 13.6% YoY
- Operating income fell 25% to $189.6 million; operating margin contracted 6 p.p. to 11.7%
- Net income dropped 58.1% to $40.6 million; net margin fell to 2.5% from 6.8%
- Fuel expense surged 57.6% to $469 million, exceeding 3Q26 guidance by ~$93 million
- Adjusted EBITDAR margin declined 7 p.p. to 24.0% from 31.0%
- 4Q26 guidance: revenue +14-16% YoY, adjusted EBITDAR margin 19.5-21.5%, operating margin 7.5-9.5%
- Loyalty program breakage update recognized $48.7 million in revenue
- Liquidity of $1.2 billion (20.7% of LTM revenue); net leverage ratio 2.1x
- Capacity (ASMs) grew 1.3% YoY; passenger count fell 3.2%
- FY26 guidance: revenue +13.5-14.5% YoY, adjusted EBITDAR margin 21.5-22.5%
Financial Impact
Record revenue of $1.6B revenue with 13.6% YoY growth offset by 58% net income decline; fuel cost overrun of ~$93M vs guidance
Risk Factors
- Jet fuel prices at historic highs and above guidance assumptions ($4.5/gal for 4Q26)
- Net income turned negative on a YTD basis (-$6M vs +$187M in 9M25)
- Net leverage ratio increased to 2.1x from 1.8x at year-end 2025
- Passenger count declined 3.2% YoY in 3Q26 and 2.5% YTD
- Mexican peso strength increasing dollar-denominated costs
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 8 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001561861-26-000081 |
| Document: aeromxicoseptembertrafficr.htm | 0001561861-26-000081 |
| Document: aeromxicojulytrafficreport.htm | 0001561861-26-000081 |
| Document: aeromxicoaugusttrafficrepo.htm | 0001561861-26-000081 |
| Document: a3q26cover6-kgrupoaeromxic.htm | 0001561861-26-000081 |
| Document: 0001561861-26-000081-index-headers.html | 0001561861-26-000081 |
| Document: 0001561861-26-000081-index.html | 0001561861-26-000081 |
| Document: 0001561861-26-000081.txt | 0001561861-26-000081 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 27, 2026 today | 6-K | $14.24 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (−1.47%) |
Oct 19, 2026 8d ago | 6-K | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (−5.71%) |
Oct 19, 2026 8d ago | 6-K | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (−5.71%) |
Oct 19, 2026 8d ago | Press Release | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (−5.71%) |
Sep 30, 2026 27d ago | Press Release | $14.92 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (+5.97%) |
Sep 30, 2026 27d ago | Press Release | $14.92 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.03 (−5.97%) |
Sep 14, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $14.75 $15.88 | ▲ +7.66% | ▲ +4.94% | $14.03 (−4.88%) |
Aug 20, 2026 9w ago | 6-K | $13.72 $15.95 | ▲ +16.25% | ▲ +16.78% | $14.03 (+2.26%) |
Aug 16, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $15.71 $14.75 | ▼ −6.11% | ▼ −4.13% | $14.03 (−10.69%) |
Aug 4, 2026 12w ago | Insider Cluster | $16.13 $14.56 | ▼ −9.73% | ▼ −8.50% | $14.03 (−13.02%) |
US Market Status
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