The Q4 revenue guidance of +14-16% YoY implies continued top-line momentum, but the fuel cost trajectory (avg $4.5/gal assumed) and margin compression to 7.5-9.5% operating margin will be the key swing factors. Watch the fuel forward curve and the peso-dollar rate — both are material to the guided range.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Grupo Aeroméxico reported Q3 2026 record revenue of $1.6B (+13.6% YoY) and EPS of $0.28, a 3.8% beat vs $0.27 consensus. However, operating income fell 25% YoY to $190M due to a 57.6% surge in fuel costs, and net income dropped 58% to $41M. Management guided Q4 revenue growth of ~14-16% YoY and maintained a constructive demand outlook, but the margin compression from fuel headwinds is a clear negative.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Record quarterly total revenue of $1.619B, up 13.6% YoY
- EPS of $0.28 beat consensus of $0.27 by 3.8%
- Operating income fell 25% YoY to $189.6M; operating margin contracted 600bps to 11.7%
- Fuel expense surged 57.6% YoY to $469M, exceeding guidance by ~$93M
- Adjusted EBITDAR margin declined 700bps YoY to 24.0%
- Net income dropped 58.1% YoY to $40.6M; net margin fell to 2.5% from 6.8%
- Q4 guidance: revenue +14-16% YoY, ASMs +7-8%, operating margin 7.5-9.5%
- Loyalty program breakage update recognized $48.7M in revenue
- Liquidity of $1.2B (20.7% of LTM revenue); net leverage 2.1x
Financial Impact
Revenue beat by ~$29M vs consensus; EPS beat by $0.01; fuel cost overrun of ~$93M vs internal guidance; net income decline of $56M YoY
Risk Factors
- Jet fuel prices remain elevated and volatile; further spikes could compress margins below guided range
- Mexican peso strength increases dollar-denominated operating costs
- Net leverage increased to 2.1x from 1.8x; further debt reduction needed
- Equity deficit of -$595M persists on the balance sheet
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3383928 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | 6-K | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.56 (−2.15%) |
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | 6-K | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.56 (−2.15%) |
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | Press Release | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.56 (−2.15%) |
Sep 30, 2026 26d ago | Press Release | $14.92 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.56 (+2.41%) |
Sep 30, 2026 26d ago | Press Release | $14.92 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.56 (−2.41%) |
Sep 14, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $14.75 $15.88 | ▲ +7.66% | ▲ +4.94% | $14.56 (−1.29%) |
Aug 20, 2026 9w ago | 6-K | $13.72 $15.95 | ▲ +16.25% | ▲ +16.78% | $14.56 (+6.12%) |
Aug 16, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $15.71 $14.75 | ▼ −6.11% | ▼ −4.13% | $14.56 (−7.32%) |
Aug 4, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $16.13 $14.56 | ▼ −9.73% | ▼ −8.50% | $14.56 (−9.73%) |
Jul 13, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $15.65 $15.74 | ▲ +0.58% | ▼ −1.92% | $14.56 (−6.96%) |
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