Monitor the Eleventh Circuit oral argument on June 23, 2026, regarding the JCA antitrust immunity stay — a reversal would materially impact Mexico-U.S. route profitability. Also watch Q1 2026 earnings due in April for confirmation of the 10-12% revenue growth guidance and updates on fuel cost recapture initiatives amid the Middle East-driven price spike.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Grupo Aeromexico's 20-F for FY2025 reports a 4.6% revenue decline to $5.36B and a 43% drop in net income to $351.9M, driven by softer domestic demand and peso depreciation. Despite the weaker 2025, the company guides for 7.5-9.5% revenue growth in FY2026 and maintains a strong market position, while the JCA antitrust immunity with Delta remains stayed pending appeal (oral argument set for June 23, 2026). The filing also highlights elevated fuel costs from Middle East tensions and LEAP-1B engine blade deterioration as near-term headwinds.
Key Facts
- Total revenue $5,360.6M in FY2025, down 4.6% YoY
- Net income $351.9M, down 43% from $617.5M in FY2024
- Operating income $928.1M, down 13% from $1,066.7M
- Adjusted EBITDAR margin 31.2%, highest on record
- Total passengers 24.6 million in FY2025
- Fleet of 165 aircraft as of Dec 31, 2025; average age 8.6 years
- DOT Final Order terminating JCA antitrust immunity stayed by Eleventh Circuit; oral argument June 23, 2026
- Delta owns 18.7% of outstanding shares
- FY2026 revenue guidance $5.77B-$5.88B (7.5-9.5% growth)
- Fuel costs up 49.4% in March 2026 vs March 2025 due to Middle East conflict
Financial Impact
Revenue decline of $259.3M in FY2025; net income decline of $265.6M; guidance implies FY2026 revenue recovery of ~7.5-9.5%.
Risk Factors
- JCA antitrust immunity termination if stay is overturned, reducing competitiveness on Mexico-U.S. routes
- Sharp fuel price increases from Middle East conflict (49.4% YoY in March 2026)
- LEAP-1B engine blade deterioration may cause fleet availability issues
- Expected increase in lease costs as favorable Chapter 11 renegotiated leases expire through 2034
- Regulatory uncertainty from DOT actions and U.S.-Mexico trade tensions
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 20-F Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-197494 |
| Document: d101275dex111.htm | 0001193125-26-197494 |
| Document: d101275dex21.htm | 0001193125-26-197494 |
| Document: d101275dex971.htm | 0001193125-26-197494 |
| Document: d101275dex81.htm | 0001193125-26-197494 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | 6-K | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.57 (−2.08%) |
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | 6-K | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.57 (−2.08%) |
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | Press Release | $14.88 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.57 (−2.08%) |
Sep 30, 2026 26d ago | Press Release | $14.92 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.57 (+2.35%) |
Sep 30, 2026 26d ago | Press Release | $14.92 | awaiting T+20 | — | $14.57 (−2.35%) |
Sep 14, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $14.75 $15.88 | ▲ +7.66% | ▲ +4.94% | $14.57 (−1.22%) |
Aug 20, 2026 9w ago | 6-K | $13.72 $15.95 | ▲ +16.25% | ▲ +16.78% | $14.57 (+6.20%) |
Aug 16, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $15.71 $14.75 | ▼ −6.11% | ▼ −4.13% | $14.57 (−7.26%) |
Aug 4, 2026 12w ago | Insider Cluster | $16.13 $14.56 | ▼ −9.73% | ▼ −8.50% | $14.57 (−9.67%) |
Jul 13, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $15.65 $15.74 | ▲ +0.58% | ▼ −1.92% | $14.57 (−6.90%) |
US Market Status
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