The rare convergence of a high-accuracy downgrade, massive CEO insider selling, institutional exits, and elevated short interest creates a powerful bearish cocktail. Traders should avoid long positions and consider short-side strategies until a clear catalyst reverses the negative momentum.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Evercore ISI Group slashed its price target on ADBE by 31% to $225 and downgraded the stock from Outperform to In-Line, a significant bearish call from a top-tier firm with 83% accuracy on 6 rated calls. The consensus of 45 analysts remains 42% Buy/Strong Buy, 49% Hold, and 9% Sell, but Evercore's target sits near the low end of the range at just 2.8% above the current price of $218.80. The mean target is $329.34, implying 50.5% upside, but the downgrade aligns with two other recent negative analyst actions. EPS revisions over the past 30 days are slightly negative for the forward year, with 2 downgrades and no upgrades in analyst ratings. Insider trading is heavily bearish: CEO Shantanu Narayen sold $12.5M in late April, and institutional holders like T. Rowe Price and Capital World Investors trimmed large positions. Short interest is elevated at 55.2% of off-exchange volume, reinforcing negative sentiment. The convergence of a high-accuracy downgrade, insider selling, institutional exits, and high short interest marks a strong bearish signal for traders.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Out of 45 analysts, 10 rate Strong Buy, 9 Buy (42% bullish combined), 22 Hold (49%), and 4 Sell (9%). The consensus remains net positive but leans heavily toward neutrality, and Evercore's downgrade is well below the prevailing bullish tilt.
Mean target $329.34, median $319.76, high $487, low $220. At $218.80, the stock trades 2.8% above Evercore's $225 PT, far below the mean upside of 50.5%. Evercore's target is the second-lowest in the group, just above the $220 low.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Evercore ISI Group | downgrade | In-Line | $225.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | Stifel | downgrade | Hold | $200.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Neutral | $240.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | Stifel | maintain | Buy | $350.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | TD Cowen | maintain | Hold | $285.00 |
| 2026-06-05 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $264.00 |
| 2026-06-05 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Outperform | $350.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | Mizuho | downgrade | Neutral | $270.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Outperform | $350.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $260.00 |
Over the past 30 days, there have been 2 downgrades and 0 upgrades. EPS revisions show 2 downward revisions vs 1 upward for the +1y period; the current fiscal year saw 1 up and 1 down. Estimates are essentially flat with a slight negative bias.
Firm Track Record — Evercore ISI Group
Evercore ISI Group accuracy: 59% on 2664 calls | avg return: 4.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | 100% | 2/2 | 2.9% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 83% | 5/6 | 4.5% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 67% | 2/3 | 1.7% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 60% | 3/5 | -5.3% | above average |
| BMO Capital | 55% | 6/11 | -2.8% | above average |
| JMP Securities | 50% | 3/6 | -1.9% | below average |
| Piper Sandler | 50% | 4/8 | -3.7% | below average |
| Citizens Capital Markets | 50% | 1/2 | 0.2% | below average |
| Baird | 50% | 2/4 | -2.2% | below average |
| Deutsche Bank | 50% | 1/2 | -13.3% | below average |
Evercore ISI Group has an 83% accuracy rate (5 correct out of 6 scored calls) with a 4.5% average return, tied for best among firms covering ADBE. JP Morgan leads with 100% (2/2). RBC Capital is the worst at 35% (6/17). Evercore's call carries above-average credibility.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $26.49 | $24.56 — $28.52 | $28.5B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $23.56 | $23.27 — $24.78 | $26.1B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $5.77 | $5.61 — $6.25 | $6.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $5.92 | $5.76 — $6.48 | $6.7B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades are bearish: CEO Narayen sold $12.5M on Apr 28, alongside two smaller sales. Institutional changes show large trims from T. Rowe Price (-32.9%), Capital World Investors (-41.2%), and Norges Bank completely exiting. Only Hillman Capital made a large buy (+122.9%). Short interest ratio is 55.2%, indicating heavy bearish positioning. Congressional buys are small ($1k-$15k each) and non-consequential. The cross-platform signal strongly converges with the analyst downgrade.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 22, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $218.36 $272.47 | ▲ +24.78% | ▲ +21.88% | $241.28 (+10.50%) |
Jul 21, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $227.16 $263.14 | ▼ −15.84% | ▼ −13.28% | $241.28 (−6.22%) |
Jul 20, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $219.72 $247.90 | ▲ +12.83% | ▲ +13.24% | $241.28 (+9.81%) |
Jun 26, 2026 13w ago | Insider Buy | $206.43 $225.11 | ▲ +9.05% | ▲ +9.33% | $241.28 (+16.88%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $204.02 $223.64 | ▼ −9.62% | ▼ −7.84% | $241.28 (−18.26%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $204.02 $223.64 | ▼ −9.62% | ▼ −7.84% | $241.28 (−18.26%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $204.02 $223.64 | ▲ +9.62% | ▲ +7.84% | $241.28 (+18.26%) |
Apr 28, 2026 22w ago | Insider Cluster | $242.97 $240.49 | ▼ −1.02% | ▼ −6.49% | $241.28 (−0.69%) |
Apr 27, 2026 22w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $239.29 $240.49 | ▼ −0.50% | ▲ +4.45% | $241.28 (−0.83%) |
US Market Status
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