The double-downgrade from a mid-accuracy firm with poor timing is a bearish signal, but the stock already trades below the new PT and consensus EPS revisions are strongly positive. Traders should watch for a potential bounce if the stock holds above $230, but the elevated short interest and CEO selling warrant caution.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Morgan Stanley double-downgraded ADBE from Equal-Weight to Underweight on July 21, slashing its price target to $240 from $365 — a 34.5% cut. The stock closed at $234.74, already below the new target, implying a 2.2% upside. The firm's 55% accuracy on 5 ADBE calls and negative average return of -5.3% on rated stocks temper the bearish signal. Consensus remains heavily skewed Buy/Hold — 50% Buy (17 of 34), 44% Hold (15 of 34), only 6% Sell (2 of 34). The mean target of $273.28 implies 16.4% upside, while the low target of $190 (Goldman Sachs) sits 19% below current. Analyst momentum is mixed: 2 upgrades vs 1 downgrade in 30 days. EPS revisions are overwhelmingly positive — 25 up vs 0 down for the current quarter, 26 up vs 0 down for the current year. Insider activity shows a $1.9M buy by Ricks David A on June 25, partially offsetting CEO Narayen's $18.3M sell cluster on April 28. Short interest is elevated at 65.2% of TRF volume. The double-downgrade from a mid-accuracy firm with a poor track record on ADBE is a contrarian call against consensus, but the magnitude of the PT cut and the stock already trading below it suggest limited incremental downside.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus: 50% Buy (8 Strong Buy + 9 Buy = 17), 44% Hold (25), 6% Sell (3). 34 analysts cover ADBE. The consensus is heavily tilted bullish/hold, making Morgan Stanley's Underweight a clear contrarian outlier.
Mean target $273.28, median $250, high $380, low $190. Current price $234.74 implies 16.4% upside to mean. Morgan Stanley's $240 PT is below the median and mean, aligning with the bearish minority (Goldman Sachs $190, Citi $228, UBS $225).
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Morgan Stanley | downgrade | Underweight | $240.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | CLSA | initiate | Outperform | $300.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | HSBC | upgrade | Buy | $308.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $228.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Sell | $190.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | Jefferies | maintain | Hold | — |
| 2026-06-12 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $340.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $225.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $250.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | BMO Capital | maintain | Market Perform | $230.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 2 upgrades (HSBC Hold→Buy, CLSA Initiate Outperform) vs 1 downgrade (Morgan Stanley). EPS revisions are strongly positive: 25 up vs 0 down for current quarter, 26 up vs 0 down for current year. Estimates are being revised higher, diverging from the bearish rating action.
Firm Track Record — Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley accuracy: 55% on 4989 calls | avg return: 4.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | 100% | 2/2 | 2.9% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 83% | 5/6 | 4.5% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 67% | 2/3 | 1.7% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 60% | 3/5 | -5.3% | above average |
| BMO Capital | 55% | 6/11 | -2.8% | above average |
| JMP Securities | 50% | 3/6 | -1.9% | below average |
| Piper Sandler | 50% | 4/8 | -3.7% | below average |
| Citizens Capital Markets | 50% | 1/2 | 0.2% | below average |
| Baird | 50% | 2/4 | -2.2% | below average |
| Deutsche Bank | 50% | 1/2 | -13.3% | below average |
Morgan Stanley's accuracy on ADBE is 60% (3 correct of 5 scored) with a -5.3% average return, ranking 'above average' vs peers. Best-performing firms on ADBE: JP Morgan (100% on 2 calls), Evercore ISI (83% on 6), TD Cowen (67% on 3). Worst: RBC Capital (35% on 17), Oppenheimer (36% on 11).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $6.08 | $5.82 — $6.35 | $6.7B | ↑24 ↓0 |
| +1q | $6.32 | $5.88 — $6.62 | $6.8B | ↑24 ↓0 |
| 0y | $24.42 | $24.25 — $24.99 | $26.5B | ↑28 ↓0 |
| +1y | $27.53 | $25.66 — $29.15 | $28.9B | ↑29 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: $1.9M buy by Ricks David A on June 25 (bullish signal) vs CEO Narayen's $18.3M sell cluster on April 28 (bearish but routine). Congressional: Rep. Newhouse sold $1K-$15K on July 10; Rep. Khanna bought $1K-$15K on June 2. Institutional: Ninety One UK added 38.9% ($55M), while Meitav near-exited (-93.7%). Short interest at 65.2% of TRF volume is elevated, indicating bearish positioning. The insider buy and institutional adds partially diverge from the downgrade signal.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 22, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $218.36 $272.47 | ▲ +24.78% | ▲ +21.88% | $237.13 (+8.59%) |
Jul 21, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $227.16 $263.14 | ▼ −15.84% | ▼ −13.28% | $237.13 (−4.39%) |
Jul 20, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $219.72 $247.90 | ▲ +12.83% | ▲ +13.24% | $237.13 (+7.92%) |
Jun 26, 2026 13w ago | Insider Buy | $206.43 $225.11 | ▲ +9.05% | ▲ +9.33% | $237.13 (+14.87%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $204.02 $223.64 | ▼ −9.62% | ▼ −7.84% | $237.13 (−16.23%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $204.02 $223.64 | ▼ −9.62% | ▼ −7.84% | $237.13 (−16.23%) |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | 8-K | $204.02 $223.64 | ▲ +9.62% | ▲ +7.84% | $237.13 (+16.23%) |
Apr 28, 2026 22w ago | Insider Cluster | $242.97 $240.49 | ▼ −1.02% | ▼ −6.49% | $237.13 (−2.40%) |
Apr 27, 2026 22w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $239.29 $240.49 | ▼ −0.50% | ▲ +4.45% | $237.13 (+0.90%) |
US Market Status
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