Political risk RegionAmericas Impact Major
Brazil ETF tumbles nearly 15% in Tokyo after Lula runoff win
What happened
A Tokyo-listed Bovespa ETF fell nearly 15% after Lula won Brazil’s runoff about 52% to 48%, reversing a first-round deficit. Separately, Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro arrived in the US after the election defeat, though the Brazil Supreme Court says no search warrant was issued against him. Trump said the election looked 'rigged,' but Bolsonaro's party recognized Lula's win.
What it means for markets
The sharp drop in the Brazil ETF signals investor concern over Lula's win, likely pressuring Brazilian assets. The reversal of the first-round deficit adds uncertainty. The reported departure of Flavio Bolsonaro may further unsettle political stability, though the Supreme Court's statement on no search warrant could temper some fears.
AssetExpectedMove since first report
Brazil EWZ ETF fell nearly 15% in Tokyo after Lula win, signaling investor concern
▼ Down
-23.78% 42.59 (2026-10-23) → 32.46 (2026-10-30)
What to watch
- Any further political moves by Bolsonaro allies
- Lula's policy announcements on fiscal and economic plans
Source timeline
- Reuters Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro arrives in US after election defeat
- Reuters Brazil Supreme Court says no search warrant issued against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro
- investingLive Flávio Bolsonaro reportedly flees Brazil for the US after election loss
- Reuters Trump says Brazil election looked 'rigged,' defeated Bolsonaro's party recognizes Lula win
- investingLive Brazil ETF tumbles nearly 15% in Tokyo after Lula’s comeback runoff win