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Netanyahu, Eisenkot deadlocked at 51 seats each in Israeli election

First reported · Updated · 23 sources: Reuters, investingLive, Bloomberg, BBC

What happened

Israel's election ended in a deadlock, with Netanyahu's religious right-wing alliance and Eisenkot's bloc both on track to secure 51 of 120 parliamentary seats, according to two exit polls. A third exit poll had Netanyahu slightly ahead. The shekel jumped to a 5-week high amid record turnout.

What it means for markets

The shekel's jump to a 5-week high on record turnout suggests markets are pricing in a potential leadership change, as Reuters reports markets see upside in a Netanyahu defeat after a three-year rally. A caretaker role could limit Netanyahu but not rule out war with Iran, though any restart of war on Iran would reverse that. Watch for coalition formation and any immediate policy signals on Iran or Gaza.

AssetExpectedMove since first report
Israel EIS Shekel jumps to 5-week high on record turnout, signaling market optimism for a leadership change
▲ Up
-3.81% 119.82 (2026-10-23) → 115.25 (2026-10-30)
Crude oil USO Potential restart of war on Iran could boost oil prices on supply disruption fears
▲ Up
-0.41% 169.53 (2026-10-23) → 168.83 (2026-10-30)
Gold GLD Geopolitical uncertainty in Israel and potential conflict with Iran could drive safe-haven demand
▲ Up
-2.95% 366.61 (2026-10-23) → 355.78 (2026-10-30)

What to watch

  • Coalition negotiations to break the 51-51 deadlock
  • Any restart of war on Iran as suggested by Netanyahu
  • UN inquiry findings on genocide in Gaza after truce

Source timeline

  1. investingLive Iran's Ghalibaf: Progress can only be achieved once the seven conditions have been agreed upon
  2. Reuters Netanyahu, at risk of losing power, steps up attacks on Israel's Arab parties
  3. Reuters Explainer: How could Israel break the election deadlock?
  4. Reuters Israel's election gives survivor Netanyahu a path to keep power
  5. Reuters Explainer: What's at stake for Trump in Israel's deadlocked election?
  6. Reuters Israel's high-turnout vote brushed aside in rest of the Middle East
  7. Reuters Caretaker role could limit Netanyahu but not rule out war with Iran
  8. Reuters Breakingviews - COMMENTARY: Israel’s vote prolongs Middle East instability
  9. Bloomberg Israeli vote deadlocked with Netanyahu level with Opposition
  10. Reuters Netanyahu, Eisenkot stake rival claims to lead Israel after deadlocked vote
  11. Reuters Israel's shekel jumps to 5-week high amid record election turnout
  12. Reuters Netanyahu warns of Arab voter surge in Israel's election; Arab leaders call tactic racist
  13. Reuters Israel election: What happens after polls close?
  14. Reuters Netanyahu's political survival on the line as Israel votes
  15. Reuters UN inquiry says Israel kept committing genocide in Gaza after truce
  16. Reuters Netanyahu touts Trump endorsement on eve of vote, suggests they may restart war on Iran
  17. Reuters Netanyahu faces reckoning for October 7 in Israel's first vote since attack
  18. Reuters Live 2026 Israel election results
  19. Reuters Who are the leading candidates in Israel's election?
  20. Reuters Israel markets see upside in Netanyahu defeat after three-year rally
  21. BBC Deeply divided Israel braces for pivotal election
  22. Reuters Around 1,200 Palestinians are displaced in Hebron as Israel begins military operation

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