Despite a double downgrade from Morgan Stanley, the call is low-conviction given the firm’s subpar accuracy and contrarian position against a 86% Buy consensus. Elevated short interest and insider selling add risk, but mean PT implies 65% upside. Wait for earnings on May 27 before taking contrarian short position.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal-Weight with a reduced price target of $155, down from $200, citing deteriorating near-term momentum. The firm has a 57% accuracy rate (4/7 calls correct), below its historical average and well below top-tier firms like Stephens & Co. (100%, 3/3). Consensus remains bullish: 86% Buy/Strong Buy (49 of 58 analysts), with a mean PT of $230.45, implying 65% upside from current levels of $139.61. EPS estimates are stable, though revisions have slowed, with only 1 downward revision in the past 30 days across FY1. Insider selling totaled over $1.3M in March, while institutional activity shows divergence—Morgan Stanley added 25.4%, but Two Sigma trimmed -63.9%. Short ratio remains elevated at 59.6%. Earnings due in 35 days.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 58 total analysts, 86% rate it Buy or Strong Buy (16 Strong Buy, 33 Buy), 16% Hold (9), and 0% Sell or Strong Sell. Consensus direction remains firmly bullish, with no Sell ratings. Morgan Stanley's downgrade is contrarian but not outlier, as BTIG also downgraded to Neutral on April 9. The overall bias remains heavily positive, with 49 of 58 analysts at Buy or above.
The consensus price target mean is $230.45, median $225, high $335, low $140, based on 45 analysts. Current price is $139.61, implying 65% upside to the mean. Morgan Stanley’s $155 PT is 33% below the mean and 22% below the median, placing it in the bottom quartile of targets. It remains above only the $140 low target and is 11% above current price, suggesting limited near-term upside.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Morgan Stanley | downgrade | Equal-Weight | $155.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keybanc | maintain | Overweight | $160.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | BTIG | downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $250.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | Wells Fargo | initiate | Overweight | $200.00 |
| 2026-03-02 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $195.00 |
| 2026-03-02 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Neutral | $257.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Macquarie | maintain | Outperform | $210.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Canaccord Genuity | maintain | Buy | $275.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $220.00 |
In the past 30 days, there have been 2 downgrades (Morgan Stanley, BTIG) and 0 upgrades. EPS estimates show modest downward pressure: 40 upward revisions in the last 30 days for current year EPS, but 1 downward revision. Next quarter EPS has seen 1 downward revision and no upward revisions in the past 30 days. Revenue estimates remain stable. Momentum in analyst sentiment is neutral-to-slightly negative.
Firm Track Record — Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley accuracy: 55% on 4993 calls | avg return: 4.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephens & Co. | 100% | 3/3 | 19.8% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 100% | 2/2 | 1.9% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 80% | 4/5 | 10.8% | top tier |
| Barclays | 73% | 8/11 | 4.2% | top tier |
| Baird | 71% | 5/7 | 8.8% | top tier |
| Stifel | 71% | 5/7 | 1% | top tier |
| Bernstein | 67% | 2/3 | -18.5% | top tier |
| Mizuho | 64% | 7/11 | -2% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 63% | 5/8 | 12.1% | top tier |
| Wedbush | 60% | 3/5 | 5% | above average |
Morgan Stanley has a 57% accuracy rate on this stock (4 correct out of 7 rated calls), with an average return of +0.8% on rated stocks—below the top-tier average of +8.5%. Among 15 firms covering the name, Morgan ranks 14th in accuracy. Top performers include Stephens & Co. (100%, +19.8% avg return) and Truist (100%, +1.9%), while Bernstein (67%) and Mizuho (64%) also outperform. This firm's call carries below-average predictive weight.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 27, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $1.01 | $0.99 — $1.07 | $835.8M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.04 | $1.01 — $1.16 | $878.8M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $4.03 | $3.99 — $4.47 | $3.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $4.59 | $3.81 — $5.23 | $4.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insiders sold $1.32M worth of shares on March 17–18, including multiple executives. Institutionally, Morgan Stanley added 25.4% to its position, while Two Sigma cut -63.9%, Bank of America -52.9%, and UBS -49.8%. Norges Bank initiated a new stake. Short interest is extremely high at 59.6% short ratio, indicating intense bearish positioning. Insider and institutional signals are mixed, but elevated short interest and insider selling align with Morgan Stanley’s cautious view.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 6, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $162.60 $177.80 | ▲ +9.35% | ▲ +8.75% | $200.21 (+23.13%) |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $151.63 $168.42 | ▲ +11.07% | ▲ +7.69% | $200.21 (+32.04%) |
Jun 25, 2026 14w ago | 144 | $132.26 $139.70 | ▲ +5.63% | ▲ +4.36% | $200.21 (+51.38%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $124.85 $146.43 | ▲ +17.28% | ▲ +16.75% | $200.21 (+60.36%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $124.85 $146.43 | ▲ +17.28% | ▲ +16.75% | $200.21 (+60.36%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $124.85 $146.43 | ▲ +17.28% | ▲ +16.75% | $200.21 (+60.36%) |
Jun 17, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $124.85 $146.43 | ▲ +17.28% | ▲ +16.75% | $200.21 (+60.36%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $124.38 $146.43 | ▲ +17.73% | ▲ +16.41% | $200.21 (+60.97%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $124.38 $146.43 | ▲ +17.73% | ▲ +16.41% | $200.21 (+60.97%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $124.38 $146.43 | ▲ +17.73% | ▲ +16.41% | $200.21 (+60.97%) |
US Market Status
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