The double downgrade from B of A, combined with falling EPS estimates and elevated short interest, suggests near-term caution. With earnings due July 30, traders should monitor the report for confirmation of the bearish thesis; a miss could accelerate downside toward the $130 low target.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
B of A Securities double-downgraded XOM from Buy to Neutral on July 28, 2026, raising the price target slightly to $158 from $154. The firm has a 54% accuracy rate on 3,280 calls with an average return of 5.1%. Consensus on XOM is mixed: 16 of 30 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 Hold, and 1 Sell. The mean price target is $167.05, implying 7.9% upside from the current $154.77; B of A's $158 target sits below the mean. Over the past 30 days, there has been 1 downgrade and 0 upgrades, with EPS revisions trending slightly lower for the current quarter (4 downward revisions in 30 days). No insider trades were reported, but institutional exits and trims (e.g., Walleye Capital trimming 28.4%) align with the bearish analyst signal. The next earnings report is due July 30, 2026, adding near-term event risk. The double downgrade from a moderately accurate firm against a consensus that still leans bullish creates a cautious but not alarmist signal for traders.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus: 7 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell (30 analysts). The consensus leans bullish (53% Buy/Strong Buy) but with a significant 43% Hold camp, indicating caution. B of A's Neutral aligns with the largest single rating group.
Current price: $154.77. Mean target: $167.05 (7.9% upside). Median: $168. High: $185. Low: $130. B of A's $158 target is below the mean and median, reflecting a below-consensus view. The wide range ($130–$185) suggests high uncertainty.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | B of A Securities | downgrade | Neutral | $158.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $170.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $155.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $168.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | B of A Securities | upgrade | Buy | $154.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $175.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $182.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | Bernstein | maintain | Outperform | $182.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Sector Perform | $180.00 |
| 2026-05-04 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $174.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 1 downgrade (this one). EPS revisions: current quarter (0q) saw 4 downward revisions in 30 days, with EPS estimates falling from $3.73 to $3.68. Next quarter (+1q) also saw 2 downward revisions. Estimates are trending lower.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 30, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $10.74 | $7.46 — $14.49 | $393.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.34 | $2.02 — $4.67 | $97.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $11.22 | $7.91 — $16.37 | $393.5B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $3.68 | $3.14 — $4.46 | $98.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades reported. Congressional activity: Republican Rep. Kevin Hern exchanged XOM shares ($100k–$250k) on July 2, 2026, and Rep. Matt Van Epps sold a small amount ($1k–$15k) on June 16. Institutional changes show 4 exits and 1 trim (Walleye Capital -28.4%). Short interest is 58.9% of float, a very high level indicating significant bearish positioning. The analyst downgrade converges with institutional exits and high short interest, reinforcing the bearish signal.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 1, 2026 1d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $162.12 awaiting T+20 | awaiting T+20 | — | $163.93 (−1.12%) |
Aug 28, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $156.71 $162.52 | ▲ +3.71% | ▲ +3.45% | $163.93 (+4.61%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $155.44 $156.71 | ▲ +0.82% | ▼ −2.17% | $163.93 (+5.47%) |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $153.04 $160.64 | ▼ −4.97% | ▼ −1.58% | $163.93 (−7.12%) |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | Court Ruling | $156.89 $166.17 | ▲ +5.91% | ▲ +2.60% | $163.93 (+4.49%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | Court Ruling | $136.72 $154.77 | ▲ +13.20% | ▲ +14.23% | $163.93 (+19.91%) |
Jun 23, 2026 14w ago | Court Ruling | $139.73 $148.36 | ▲ +6.18% | ▲ +5.02% | $163.93 (+17.32%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | DEFA14A | $148.00 $136.90 | ▼ −7.50% | ▼ −5.20% | $163.93 (+10.77%) |
May 15, 2026 19w ago | DEFA14A | $157.91 $140.92 | ▼ −10.76% | ▼ −12.88% | $163.93 (+3.82%) |
US Market Status
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