Traders should monitor the May 1, 2026 earnings release for confirmation of these estimates. The negative timing effects from rising commodity prices could pressure short-term earnings, but the company's ability to increase Permian production may offset some of these impacts. The Golden Pass LNG first production is a positive development for long-term LNG capacity.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
ExxonMobil disclosed that Middle East conflicts have disrupted operations in Qatar and the UAE, lowering global oil-equivalent production by approximately 6% in Q1 2026. Despite these disruptions, the company expects Q1 EPS to be higher than Q4 2025, excluding unfavorable timing effects from rising commodity prices. The company is offsetting these impacts by increasing Permian production and optimizing logistics.
Key Facts
- Middle East disruptions expected to lower global oil-equivalent production by ~6% in Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025
- Q1 2026 EPS expected to be higher than Q4 2025, excluding unfavorable timing effects
- Timing effects from rising commodity prices expected to be $3.5-$4.9 billion negative impact
- Golden Pass LNG achieved first production from Train 1 on March 30, 2026
- Middle East assets represent ~20% of global oil-equivalent production but smaller percentage of Upstream earnings
Financial Impact
Negative $3.5-$4.9 billion timing effects from rising commodity prices, partially offset by higher expected EPS
Risk Factors
- Prolonged repair time for damaged LNG trains in Qatar
- Continued geopolitical instability in the Middle East affecting operations
- Negative timing effects from commodity price volatility
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000034088-26-000056 |
| Document: f8k1q991040826.htm | 0000034088-26-000056 |
| Document: xom-20260408.htm | 0000034088-26-000056 |
| Document: 0000034088-26-000056-index-headers.html | 0000034088-26-000056 |
| Document: 0000034088-26-000056-index.html | 0000034088-26-000056 |
| Document: 0000034088-26-000056.txt | 0000034088-26-000056 |
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| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 1, 2026 1d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $162.12 awaiting T+20 | awaiting T+20 | — | $163.93 (−1.12%) |
Aug 28, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $156.71 $162.52 | ▲ +3.71% | ▲ +3.45% | $163.93 (+4.61%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $155.44 $156.71 | ▲ +0.82% | ▼ −2.17% | $163.93 (+5.47%) |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $153.04 $160.64 | ▼ −4.97% | ▼ −1.58% | $163.93 (−7.12%) |
Jul 23, 2026 10w ago | Court Ruling | $156.89 $166.17 | ▲ +5.91% | ▲ +2.60% | $163.93 (+4.49%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | Court Ruling | $136.72 $154.77 | ▲ +13.20% | ▲ +14.23% | $163.93 (+19.91%) |
Jun 23, 2026 14w ago | Court Ruling | $139.73 $148.36 | ▲ +6.18% | ▲ +5.02% | $163.93 (+17.32%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | DEFA14A | $148.00 $136.90 | ▼ −7.50% | ▼ −5.20% | $163.93 (+10.77%) |
May 15, 2026 19w ago | DEFA14A | $157.91 $140.92 | ▼ −10.76% | ▼ −12.88% | $163.93 (+3.82%) |
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