The CEO's open-market purchases signal personal conviction, but the trivial proportional size (~0.0012% of market cap) limits the signal's magnitude. Monitor for additional insider buying or a material catalyst (e.g., earnings, M&A, regulatory update) that could explain the timing. The 92% analyst bullish consensus and recent institutional accumulation support a positive backdrop, but the historical calibration shows VST insider-buy signals have underperformed at T+20 (avg -2.87% alpha).
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Vistra Corp. CEO James Burke made two open-market purchases totaling $569K between August 24-31, 2026, at an average price of ~$135.50. This is a standalone conviction buy by the top executive, a recognized bullish signal per insider-trading literature, though the dollar amount is only ~0.0012% of VST's $46.3B market cap, making it trivial in proportional terms.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- CEO James Burke purchased 4,200 shares total across two open-market transactions on August 24 and August 31, 2026.
- Total purchase value: $569,000 at an average price of ~$135.50 per share.
- The purchase represents approximately 0.0012% of VST's $46.3B market cap, well below the 0.1% materiality threshold.
- This is a single-insider conviction buy by the CEO, which per Cohen/Malloy/Pomorski (2012) carries ~6% abnormal annual returns.
- VST has 92% analyst bullish consensus (22 Buy/Strong Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell).
- Recent 30-day insider activity includes 3 prior buys totaling $1.2M, suggesting a pattern of insider accumulation.
Financial Impact
$569K in CEO open-market purchases, representing ~0.0012% of market cap — trivial in proportional terms but notable as a CEO conviction buy.
Risk Factors
- Historical calibration shows VST insider-buy signals have a 29% win rate at T+20 with average alpha of -3.20% vs SPY.
- The purchase amount is trivial relative to market cap, limiting its informational value.
- CEO purchases may be part of a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan, reducing the signal's timeliness.
- VST stock has rallied significantly (recent price ~$135 vs. ~$120 three months ago), potentially reducing near-term upside.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 SEC document filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INSIDER-BUY Data (Synthetic) | 0001268406-26-000009 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 10, 2026 21d ago | Press Release | $148.38 $140.67 | ▼ −5.20% | ▼ −4.97% | $137.23 (−7.52%) |
Sep 10, 2026 22d ago | Insider Cluster | $147.05 $143.56 | ▼ −2.37% | ▼ −1.87% | $137.23 (−6.68%) |
Sep 2, 2026 4w ago | Insider Buy | $143.46 $147.05 | ▲ +2.50% | ▲ +3.46% | $137.23 (−4.35%) |
Aug 24, 2026 5w ago | Insider Buy | $135.66 $137.37 | ▲ +1.26% | ▲ +0.79% | $137.23 (+1.15%) |
Aug 7, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $140.01 $148.13 | ▲ +5.80% | ▲ +5.40% | $137.23 (−1.99%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $152.56 $168.98 | ▲ +10.76% | ▲ +12.43% | $137.23 (−10.05%) |
Jul 6, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $157.22 $158.86 | ▲ +1.04% | ▲ +0.55% | $137.23 (−12.72%) |
Jun 30, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $153.16 $155.73 | ▲ +1.68% | ▲ +1.42% | $137.23 (−10.40%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $167.26 $163.49 | ▼ −2.25% | ▼ −0.19% | $137.23 (−17.96%) |
Jun 18, 2026 15w ago | 144 | $163.75 $167.77 | ▲ +2.46% | ▲ +4.12% | $137.23 (−16.20%) |
US Market Status
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