BMO’s initiation from a top-tier firm with perfect accuracy, combined with rising EPS estimates and a 5-day proximity to earnings, creates a high-conviction bullish setup. Elevated short interest increases upside risk — position for a post-earnings squeeze.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
BMO Capital initiates Visa (V) at Outperform with a $365 price target, implying 17.8% upside from the current $309.94. The firm has a perfect 100% accuracy rate (5/5 calls) and average return of 8.5%, placing it in the top tier among 15 covering firms. Consensus remains bullish: 88.6% Buy/Strong Buy (31 Buy, 11 Strong Buy) among 35 analysts. The mean PT is $393.43, 27% above current price. EPS estimates are rising: 6 upward revisions in the last 30 days for FY+1, with no downward revisions. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank re-entered with a $7B position after exiting, while Renaissance Technologies reduced its stake by 99.8%. Short ratio is elevated at 58.2%. Earnings due in 5 days (April 27).
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 35 analysts, 31 (88.6%) rate V as Buy, 11 (31.4%) as Strong Buy, and 4 (11.4%) as Hold. No Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Consensus direction is strongly bullish, with BMO’s initiation aligning with the prevailing sentiment.
The consensus mean price target is $393.43, median $400, range $323–$450. V trades at $309.94, implying 27.0% upside to the mean. BMO’s $365 target is 7.8% below the mean and 8.9% above current price, positioning it below-average but still supportive.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | BMO Capital | initiate | Outperform | $365.00 |
| 2026-04-14 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $400.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $340.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | Loop Capital | initiate | Buy | $387.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $390.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | Freedom Capital Markets | upgrade | Buy | — |
| 2026-02-17 | Freedom Broker | upgrade | Buy | $375.00 |
| 2026-01-30 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Outperform | $395.00 |
| 2026-01-30 | Macquarie | maintain | Outperform | $410.00 |
| 2026-01-30 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $411.00 |
In the past 30 days, 2 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are accelerating: 6 upward and 2 downward revisions in the past 30 days for FY+1 estimates. Current FY+1 EPS is $14.55, up from $14.54 (30d ago), indicating strong earnings momentum.
Firm Track Record — BMO Capital
BMO Capital accuracy: 53% on 1844 calls | avg return: 2.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 100% | 3/3 | 8.5% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 100% | 5/5 | 8.5% | top tier |
| Baird | 100% | 4/4 | 7.9% | top tier |
| Susquehanna | 100% | 4/4 | 7% | top tier |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | 100% | 2/2 | 6.3% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 100% | 4/4 | 8.8% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 83% | 5/6 | 4.6% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 80% | 4/5 | 11.2% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 75% | 3/4 | 9.5% | top tier |
| Barclays | 75% | 3/4 | 6.6% | top tier |
BMO Capital has a 100% accuracy rate (5/5 calls) and 8.5% average return on rated stocks, tying it with Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and others as a top-tier performer. Among 15 firms, 10 have 100% accuracy, but BMO’s small sample (5 calls) limits statistical weight. Morgan Stanley leads in average return (11.2%) despite 80% accuracy.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Apr 27, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $3.10 | $3.06 — $3.19 | $10.7B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.17 | $3.07 — $3.26 | $11.1B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| 0y | $12.87 | $12.66 — $13.20 | $44.6B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1y | $14.55 | $14.20 — $15.03 | $49.3B | ↑5 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Institutional activity is conflicting: Norges Bank re-established a $7.0B position after a prior exit, while Renaissance Technologies slashed its stake by 99.8%. No insider trades reported. Congressional trades show 3 buys (2 Republicans) and 1 sell (Democrat), minor in size. Short interest is extremely high at 58.2% short ratio, suggesting bearish positioning ahead of earnings — a potential squeeze catalyst if results beat.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 2, 2026 4w ago | Insider Cluster | $378.40 $359.85 | ▼ −4.90% | ▼ −4.75% | $359.89 (−4.89%) |
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Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $347.53 $368.18 | ▲ +5.94% | ▲ +2.67% | $359.89 (+3.56%) |
Jul 6, 2026 12w ago | Insider Cluster | $357.25 $366.13 | ▲ +2.49% | ▲ +3.05% | $359.89 (+0.74%) |
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Jun 26, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $341.65 $355.74 | ▲ +4.12% | ▲ +4.40% | $359.89 (+5.34%) |
Jun 15, 2026 15w ago | 25-NSE | $323.82 $357.75 | ▲ +10.48% | ▲ +11.23% | $359.89 (+11.14%) |
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May 11, 2026 20w ago | 425 | $323.91 $325.05 | ▲ +0.35% | ▲ +0.66% | $359.89 (+11.11%) |
US Market Status
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