The dual upgrade from Evercore and JP Morgan, combined with rising EPS estimates and massive institutional buying, creates a strong bullish case for USB. Traders should watch for a break above $65 (the old consensus low) as confirmation, with the elevated short ratio adding squeeze potential.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Evercore ISI Group upgraded USB (US BANCORP DE) from In-Line to Outperform on July 20, 2026, raising its price target to $72 from $65, implying 14% upside from the current $63.14. JP Morgan also upgraded USB from Underweight to Neutral with a $67.50 target, creating a bullish cluster. Evercore ISI has a 71% accuracy rate on 7 rated calls with a 7.7% average return, ranking as top-tier among covering firms. Consensus is mixed: 14 Buy, 11 Hold, 2 Sell out of 27 analysts, with a mean target of $69.52. The 30-day analyst momentum is positive with 3 upgrades and 0 downgrades, and EPS estimates are being revised higher across all periods. Insider selling of $1.9M by a director in May 2026 provides a mild contra-signal, but institutional buying is strong with Ameriprise adding 47.6% and Walleye Capital doubling its position. Short interest is elevated at 73.5% of off-exchange volume, suggesting potential squeeze risk. The bottom line: the dual upgrade from two firms, rising EPS revisions, and strong institutional accumulation create a favorable setup for USB, though the high short ratio warrants caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
The consensus among 27 analysts is 14 Buy (5 Strong Buy, 9 Buy), 11 Hold, and 2 Sell, representing 52% Buy, 41% Hold, and 7% Sell. The consensus is leaning bullish but with significant hold-side caution.
The mean price target is $69.52, median $68.00, high $77.00 (Oppenheimer), and low $65.00. At $63.14, USB has 10.1% implied upside to the mean. Evercore ISI's $72 target is above the median and mean, ranking in the top quartile of targets.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Evercore ISI Group | upgrade | Outperform | $72.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | JP Morgan | upgrade | Neutral | $67.50 |
| 2026-07-17 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $77.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | Stephens & Co. | maintain | Equal-Weight | $67.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | maintain | Market Perform | $66.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $69.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $74.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $69.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $68.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $75.00 |
In the last 30 days, USB has seen 3 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are positive across all periods: 0Q EPS revised up from $1.29 to $1.31, +1Q from $1.35 to $1.38, 0Y from $5.09 to $5.21, and +1Y from $5.65 to $5.75. Revisions up outnumber down 9 to 3 over 30 days.
Firm Track Record — Evercore ISI Group
Evercore ISI Group accuracy: 59% on 2664 calls | avg return: 4.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B of A Securities | 100% | 2/2 | 11.3% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 100% | 4/4 | 13.1% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 100% | 7/7 | 13.2% | top tier |
| UBS | 100% | 3/3 | 13.5% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 88% | 7/8 | 8.1% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 83% | 5/6 | 5.4% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 73% | 8/11 | 3.5% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 71% | 5/7 | 10% | top tier |
| DA Davidson | 71% | 5/7 | 8.5% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 71% | 5/7 | 7.7% | top tier |
Evercore ISI Group has a 71% accuracy rate on 7 rated calls with a 7.7% average return, placing it in the top tier of firms covering USB. The best-performing firms are B of A Securities, RBC Capital, Goldman Sachs, and UBS (all 100% accuracy on small samples), while Piper Sandler, Jefferies, and Barclays are below average at 50%.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $1.31 | $1.24 — $1.37 | $8.0B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.38 | $1.33 — $1.45 | $8.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $5.21 | $5.13 — $5.33 | $31.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $5.75 | $5.36 — $6.10 | $33.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trading shows a single $1.9M sell by director Dilip Venkatachari on May 5, 2026 — a mild bearish signal but not a cluster. Congressional activity is neutral with one small buy by Rep. Ro Khanna ($1K-$15K). Institutional changes are strongly bullish: Ameriprise added 47.6% ($396M), Walleye Capital doubled its position (+153.3%, $51M), and Optiver added 53.4%. Short interest is elevated at 73.5% of off-exchange volume, indicating heavy bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze if the stock rallies.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | 13F-HR | $65.02 $62.41 | ▼ −4.01% | ▼ −2.12% | $57.51 (−11.55%) |
Jul 24, 2026 10w ago | Insider Cluster | $63.97 $62.05 | ▼ −3.00% | ▼ −6.63% | $57.51 (−10.10%) |
Jul 20, 2026 10w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $63.14 $64.87 | ▲ +2.74% | ▼ −1.38% | $57.51 (−8.92%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $64.01 $65.17 | ▲ +1.81% | ▼ −1.81% | $57.51 (−10.15%) |
Jul 6, 2026 12w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $62.83 $63.01 | ▲ +0.29% | ▲ +0.85% | $57.51 (−8.47%) |
Apr 16, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $17.92 $17.86 | ▼ −0.36% | ▼ −6.18% | $57.51 (+220.93%) |
Apr 8, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $17.85 $17.95 | ▲ +0.56% | ▼ −7.01% | $57.51 (+222.18%) |
US Market Status
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