Discount Argus’s upgrade due to its poor track record and contrarian positioning against recent institutional exits. Favor firms with stronger accuracy like JP Morgan or Piper Sandler. Monitor Two Sigma’s aggressive entry as a validating signal.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Argus Research initiated coverage with a double upgrade from Hold to Buy and set a $400 price target, implying 15.5% upside from the current $346.01. The move contrasts with Argus’s below-average track record: 50% accuracy (1/2 calls) and -17.1% average return. Consensus remains bullish: 70% Buy or Strong Buy (24 of 34 analysts). The $363.19 mean target implies 4.9% upside. EPS estimates are rising, with 8 upward revisions in the past 30 days for current year earnings. Institutional activity shows mixed signals: Norges Bank exited after a prior $4.38B stake, while Two Sigma more than doubled its position. No insider trades reported. Earnings due in 95 days; no short interest data available.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 34 total analysts, 24 (70.6%) rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, 8 (23.5%) Hold, and 2 (5.9%) Sell. Consensus direction is firmly bullish. Argus’s Buy rating aligns with the majority, but the $400 target is above the $363.19 mean and $370 median.
The consensus price target mean is $363.19, median $370, range $278–$440, based on 26 analysts. At $346.01, the stock has 4.9% upside to the mean and 6.9% to the median. Argus’s $400 target is 10.1% above the mean and 8.1% above the median, placing it in the top quartile of targets.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Argus Research | upgrade | Buy | $400.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $397.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $400.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Leerink Partners | maintain | Outperform | $400.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $405.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Baird | maintain | Underperform | $287.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $373.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Truist Securities | reiterate | Buy | $395.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | Jefferies | maintain | Buy | $373.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | Bernstein | maintain | Outperform | $411.00 |
Over the past 30 days, there have been 2 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS estimates show positive revision momentum: 8 upward and 3 downward revisions in the past 30 days for current-year earnings. Current EPS estimate is $17.86, up from $17.86 30 days ago, reflecting tightening consensus around stable fundamentals.
Firm Track Record — Argus Research
Argus Research accuracy: 54% on 339 calls | avg return: 3.7%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | 67% | 4/6 | 6.5% | top tier |
| HSBC | 67% | 2/3 | -8% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 67% | 4/6 | 4.7% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 57% | 4/7 | 1.3% | above average |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 50% | 7/14 | 0.4% | below average |
| Argus Research | 50% | 1/2 | -17.1% | below average |
| UBS | 50% | 2/4 | -2.8% | below average |
| RBC Capital | 43% | 3/7 | -0.6% | below average |
| Barclays | 42% | 5/12 | -4.3% | below average |
| Mizuho | 40% | 2/5 | -10.4% | below average |
Argus Research has a 50% accuracy rate (1 correct out of 2 scored calls) and an average return of -17.1%, ranking below average among 15 firms covering the stock. JP Morgan leads with 67% accuracy (4/6) and +6.5% average return. Argus underperforms both the group median accuracy (50%) and return (0.4%).
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 27, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $4.65 | $4.28 — $5.14 | $109.6B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.88 | $3.58 — $4.67 | $110.6B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0y | $17.86 | $17.70 — $18.75 | $440.2B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $20.12 | $18.30 — $21.59 | $456.2B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Congressional trades show 5 buys in the past 90 days, including a $50K–$100K purchase by Markwayne Mullin. No insider trades reported. Institutional activity is split: Norges Bank fully exited a $4.38B position, while Two Sigma increased its stake by 690.9%. Cullen Capital added 40.7%. No short interest data available. Congressional and some institutional buying converges with the bullish analyst signal, but Norges Bank’s exit is a divergence.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 11, 2026 21d ago | Court Ruling | $379.09 $376.90 | ▼ −0.58% | ▼ −0.36% | $365.20 (−3.66%) |
Sep 8, 2026 23d ago | 8-K | $393.06 $378.71 | ▼ −3.65% | ▼ −3.32% | $365.20 (−7.09%) |
Sep 1, 2026 4w ago | Court Ruling | $396.30 $393.06 | ▼ −0.82% | ▼ −0.90% | $365.20 (−7.85%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $414.40 $407.08 | ▼ −1.77% | ▼ −5.28% | $365.20 (−11.87%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $414.40 $407.08 | ▼ −1.77% | ▼ −5.28% | $365.20 (−11.87%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $414.40 $407.08 | ▼ −1.77% | ▼ −5.28% | $365.20 (−11.87%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $414.40 $407.08 | ▼ −1.77% | ▼ −5.28% | $365.20 (−11.87%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $414.40 $407.08 | ▼ −1.77% | ▼ −5.28% | $365.20 (−11.87%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $414.40 $407.08 | ▼ −1.77% | ▼ −5.28% | $365.20 (−11.87%) |
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | GOVT-CONTRACT | $414.40 $407.08 | ▼ −1.77% | ▼ −5.28% | $365.20 (−11.87%) |
US Market Status
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