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Institutional Cluster

TVRD

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 4/10
Horizonweeks Processed2mo ago
Institutional cluster: 4 buyers, 9 sellers (bearish)
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The institutional exit is broad but passive-led, not a concentrated active-manager thesis break. Monitor for any insider buying or a catalyst (TTI-109 UC data) that could reverse sentiment. The stock's $25M market cap and 80% analyst bullishness suggest potential contrarian opportunity if selling abates.

DirectionBearish
Confidencemedium
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d
TVRD ▼ -13.44% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +13.44% · α vs SPY +12.91% · entry $1.86 → $1.61
Next anchor: T+60d in 20d
Latest observation: T+44 +36.94% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Aug 21, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-4.30%
call +4.30% · α +4.01%
$1.78
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
-2.15%
call +2.15% · α +2.62%
$1.82
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
-13.44%
call +13.44% · α +12.91%
$1.61
settled 5w ago
T+60d
Pending
in 20d

Executive Summary

In Q2 2026, 9 institutional sellers reduced TVRD holdings by ~$1.85M, led by BlackRock (near-exit, -$1.05M), Geode (trim, -$408K), and State Street (trim, -$245K), while only 4 small buyers added $65K. The selling is dominated by mega-passive funds (BlackRock, Geode, State Street, JPMorgan, Fidelity, Northern Trust, Wells Fargo), suggesting broad index rebalancing or de-risking rather than a fundamental thesis break. The cluster aligns with the company's Aug 14 earnings miss (EPS $(0.69) vs $(0.65) consensus) and cash runway concerns, but the selling is not concentrated in active managers, weakening the signal. No insider open-market buying corroborates the institutional exit, reinforcing a cautious outlook.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
distributing
Buy Value
$301.0K
Sell Value
$1.8M
Net Flow
-$1.5M

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: -$1.5M

▲ Buyers (4)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
UBSDOUBLED+120.3%$211.0K$51.0K
Russell Investments GroupADD+85.5%$82.0K$8.0K
Pnc Financial Services GroupDOUBLED+577.8%$7.0K$5.0K
Royal Bank Of CanadaDOUBLED+448.2%$1.0K$1.0K

▼ Sellers (9)

InstitutionActionChangePrev ValueValue Δ
BlackRockNEAR_EXIT-75.4%$1.2M-$1.1M
GeodeTRIM-50.4%$580.0K-$408.2K
State StreetTRIM-65.1%$309.0K-$244.8K
Northern TrustTRIM-55.5%$156.0K-$114.6K
FidelityNEAR_EXIT-75.5%$17.0K-$14.3K
JPMorganNEAR_EXIT-95.1%$8.0K-$8.0K
Wells FargoTRIM-43.7%$7.0K-$4.8K
CitigroupNEAR_EXIT-99.6%$878.00-$876.00
Farther Finance AdvisorsTRIM-30.4%$69.00-$39.00

Key Facts

  • 9 institutional sellers reduced holdings by ~$1.85M vs 4 buyers adding $65K in Q2 2026
  • BlackRock near-exited (-75.4%, -$1.05M), Geode trimmed (-50.4%, -$408K), State Street trimmed (-65.1%, -$245K)
  • Buyers were small: UBS doubled (+$51K), Russell Investments added (+$8K), PNC doubled (+$5K), RBC doubled (+$1K)
  • No insider open-market buying (confluence score 24/100 — institutions only)
  • Earnings miss on Aug 14 (EPS $(0.69) vs $(0.65) consensus) and cash runway extended only to Q3 2027

Financial Impact

9 institutional sellers reduced holdings by ~$1.85M while 4 buyers added $65K, for net selling of ~$1.78M

institutional ownershipfloat

Risk Factors

  • Passive-led selling may continue if TVRD remains below index inclusion thresholds
  • No insider buying to signal confidence; cash runway only to Q3 2027 requires additional funding
  • Earnings miss and lack of revenue provide no fundamental floor

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Analyst Consensus
80% bullish (15 analysts)

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-TVRD-2026-Q2
10 reports for TVRD
Performance horizon
50% Hit rate @ T+20 2 of 4 directional calls Went positive at some point 3 of 4 best @ T+1▲ +61.29%Jul 7, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TVRD — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 21, 2026
9w ago
Institutional Cluster
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$1.86 $1.61▲ +13.44%▲ +12.91%—
Aug 14, 2026
10w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 5/10
$1.90 $1.83▼ −3.68%▼ −1.69%—
Aug 14, 2026
10w ago
Press Release
MIXED ★ 5/10
$1.90 $1.83▼ −3.68%▼ −1.69%—
Jul 30, 2026
12w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$2.10 $1.80▼ −14.29%▼ −18.25%—
Jul 7, 2026
16w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$3.10 $2.02▼ −34.84%▼ −36.17%—
May 14, 2026
23w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$3.96 $2.64▲ +33.33%▲ +32.48%—
May 13, 2026
23w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$3.95 $2.71▲ +31.39%▲ +30.78%—
May 8, 2026
24w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$4.18 $2.89▼ −30.86%▼ −30.88%—
Apr 23, 2026
26w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$3.10 $3.59▲ +15.81%▲ +11.78%—
Mar 31, 2026
29w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$3.00 $3.06▲ +2.00%▼ −7.72%—
Showing 10 of 10

US Market Status

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Report published Aug 21, 2026