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S-4 ·Filed Oct 9, 2026

TVA

Texas Ventures Acquisition III Corp
NEUTRAL
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed18d 12h ago SEC0001193125-26-418671
Notable filing: S-4
Actionable Insight • Neutral

Monitor the shareholder vote on October 19, 2026, and the redemption level, which will determine the post-closing cash balance and dilution. The earnout structure creates a potential catalyst if the stock reaches $15, $18, or $21 VWAP thresholds within five years.

DirectionNeutral
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
TVA ▲ 0.00% at T+5d
NEUTRAL call 0.00% · α vs SPY +1.97% · entry $10.58 → $10.58
Next anchor: T+20d in 9d
Latest observation: T+10 +0.72% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Oct 9, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+0.19%
call +0.19% · α +0.25%
$10.60
settled 16d ago
T+5d
0.00%
call 0.00% · α +1.97%
$10.58
settled 12d ago
T+20d
Pending
in 9d
T+60d
Pending
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Texas Ventures Acquisition III Corp (TVA) filed an S-4 registration statement for its business combination with Plus Automation, Inc. (PlusAI), an autonomous driving software company. The transaction values PlusAI at an $800 million equity value, to be paid entirely in shares of the post-combination company (PlusAI Holdings, Inc.) at $10.00 per share, plus up to 63 million earnout shares. The filing also includes a PIPE investment of $4.0 million and convertible notes totaling $63.9 million (at a 10% OID), with the sponsor affiliate subscribing for $27.8 million of the notes. The deal requires shareholder approval and is subject to a minimum $40 million cash closing condition and a $5,000,001 net tangible asset threshold.

Key Facts

  • PlusAI is valued at $800 million equity value, paid entirely in stock at $10.00/share.
  • PlusAI stockholders will receive ~77.6 million shares (72% ownership in no-redemption scenario).
  • Up to 63 million earnout shares are issuable upon achieving stock price targets of $15, $18, and $21.
  • Concurrent PIPE: $4.0 million from 400,000 shares and warrants; Convertible notes: $63.9 million principal (10% OID) with warrants.
  • Sponsor affiliate (YA II PN, Ltd.) subscribed for $27.8 million of the convertible notes.
  • TVA public stockholders hold 20.9% (no redemptions) to 1.3% (maximum redemptions) post-deal.
  • Closing requires ≥$40M available SPAC cash and ≥$5,000,001 net tangible assets.
  • Deadline to complete business combination is October 24, 2026, with a proposed extension to July 24, 2027.

Financial Impact

PlusAI acquired at $800M equity value; combined company will have pro forma cash of $266.6M (no redemptions) to $49.7M (maximum redemptions) after transaction expenses of $20.4M-$29.0M.

dilutioncash_positionenterprise_value

Risk Factors

  • High redemptions could leave the combined company undercapitalized (minimum $40M cash condition).
  • PlusAI has no revenue from its core SuperDrive product and expects continued losses.
  • Material weaknesses in PlusAI's internal controls over financial reporting were identified.
  • The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and shareholder approval.
  • Post-closing multi-class stock structure concentrates voting control with PlusAI founders.

Investment Themes

Traditional Finance

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
S-4 Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-418671
Document: ck0002033991-ex10_4.htm0001193125-26-418671
Document: ck0002033991-ex10_3.htm0001193125-26-418671
13 reports for TVA
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+20 3 of 3 directional calls Went positive at some point 4 of 4 best @ T+20▲ +0.28%Sep 2, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TVA — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 21, 2026
6d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$10.65awaiting T+20—$10.66 (+0.11%)
Oct 21, 2026
6d ago
8-K/A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$10.65awaiting T+20—$10.66 (+0.11%)
Oct 19, 2026
8d ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$10.64awaiting T+20—$10.66 (−0.25%)
Oct 13, 2026
14d ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$10.60awaiting T+20—$10.66 (+0.63%)
Oct 9, 2026
18d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$10.60awaiting T+20—$10.66 (+0.58%)
Oct 9, 2026
18d ago
S-4
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$10.58awaiting T+20—$10.66 (+0.78%)
Oct 7, 2026
20d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$10.58awaiting T+20—$10.66 (+0.78%)
Sep 28, 2026
29d ago
DEF 14A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$10.57 $10.66▲ +0.87%▲ +0.15%$10.66 (+0.87%)
Sep 3, 2026
7w ago
425
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$10.55 $10.58▲ +0.28%▲ +1.47%$10.66 (+1.06%)
Sep 2, 2026
7w ago
425
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$10.55 $10.58▲ +0.28%▲ +1.47%$10.66 (+1.06%)
Showing 10 of 13

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Thu (10h 6m)

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Report published Oct 9, 2026