The FY2027 guidance implies a massive step-change in revenue and profitability driven by GTA VI. Monitor pre-order data and early sell-through for GTA VI in the months following the November 19 launch. The stock will likely re-rate higher on the FY2027 outlook, but execution risk around the GTA VI launch and the flat Q4 Net Bookings (ex-GTA VI) warrant watching for any guidance cuts.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Take-Two reported fiscal Q4 2026 GAAP net loss of $59.5M ($-0.32/share), narrower than the year-ago loss of $3.73B. Net Bookings of $1.58B were flat YoY but above the company's guidance range. The critical catalyst is the initial FY2027 outlook calling for Net Bookings of $8.0-$8.2B and GAAP net income of $105-$141M ($0.55-$0.75/share), driven by the November 19 launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, which would represent a record level of operating performance.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Fiscal Q4 2026 GAAP net loss of $59.5M vs $3.73B loss in prior year (which included a $3.55B goodwill impairment)
- GAAP net revenue of $1.68B, up 6% YoY from $1.58B
- Net Bookings of $1.58B, flat YoY but above the company's guidance range of $1.51-$1.56B
- Fiscal year 2026 Net Bookings grew 19% to $6.72B, above the raised guidance of $6.65-$6.70B
- Initial FY2027 outlook: Net Bookings of $8.0-$8.2B, GAAP net income of $105-$141M ($0.55-$0.75/share), operating cash flow over $1B
- Grand Theft Auto VI launch confirmed for November 19, 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X/S
- Recurrent consumer spending grew 7% in Q4 and accounted for 82% of Net Bookings
- Short-term debt reduced from $1.15B to $30M during FY2026, strengthening the balance sheet
Financial Impact
FY2027 Net Bookings guided to $8.0-$8.2B, up ~21% from FY2026's $6.72B; GAAP net income of $105-$141M vs FY2026 net loss of $298.2M
Risk Factors
- GTA VI launch delay or underperformance would severely impact FY2027 guidance
- Flat Q4 Net Bookings YoY suggests core portfolio growth is slowing ahead of GTA VI
- GAAP net loss persists despite improving trends; profitability depends heavily on GTA VI timing
- Heavy reliance on GTA franchise for the FY2027 step-change creates single-title concentration risk
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-037260 |
| Document: ttwo-20260521.htm | 0001628280-26-037260 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-037260-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-037260 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-037260-index.html | 0001628280-26-037260 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-037260.txt | 0001628280-26-037260 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-037260 |
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