The divergence between passive/asset manager accumulation and active/quant selling suggests institutional positioning is split on TSM's near-term outlook. Monitor upcoming Q3 earnings for guidance on AI chip demand and capex — a strong print could validate the buyers' thesis, while a miss would vindicate the sellers. The 45-day reporting lag means these positions may already be partially unwound.
Executive Summary
A large institutional cluster for TSM in Q2 2026 shows mixed conviction: 60 buyers added $7.49B in positions (led by Goldman Sachs, Dodge & Cox, and Susquehanna), while 56 sellers reduced $2.27B (led by Cantillon, D.E. Shaw, and Lone Pine). The net buying of $5.22B is dominated by mega-passive and asset manager additions, while active value and quant funds were heavy sellers, creating a divergent signal.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $5.2B
▲ Buyers (60)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | ADD | +71.5% | $7.7B | $4.5B |
| Dodge & Cox | DOUBLED | +1236.5% | $688.1M | $651.6M |
| Susquehanna International Group | ADD | +26.9% | $2.4B | $1.0B |
| Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. | DOUBLED | +805.2% | $517.0M | $476.6M |
| Meitav Investment House | NEW | +0% | $401.9M | $401.9M |
▼ Sellers (56)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantillon | NEAR_EXIT | -95.4% | $842.7M | -$787.9M |
| D.E. Shaw | TRIM | -74.7% | $1.0B | -$664.5M |
| Lone Pine | NEAR_EXIT | -92.7% | $469.6M | -$421.2M |
| Bridgewater | NEAR_EXIT | -96.8% | $364.0M | -$347.5M |
| H&H Intl | EXIT | -100% | $51.1M | -$51.1M |
Key Facts
- 60 buyers added $7.49B in new holdings vs 56 sellers reducing $2.27B, net inflow of ~$5.22B
- Goldman Sachs added $4.52B (+71.5% shares), the largest single buyer
- Dodge & Cox nearly 13x'd its position, adding $651.6M
- Cantillon exited 95.4% of its position (-$787.9M), the largest seller
- D.E. Shaw trimmed 74.7% (-$664.5M), Bridgewater near-exited 96.8% (-$347.5M)
- Active value funds (Lone Pine, H&H Intl) and quant funds (Bridgewater, D.E. Shaw) were net sellers
- Passive/asset managers (Goldman Sachs, Susquehanna, Mirae) were the dominant buyers
Financial Impact
Net institutional inflow of approximately $5.22B in Q2 2026, with $12.35B in aggregate buyer holdings vs $2.27B in seller reductions. The buying was concentrated in mega-passive and asset managers, while active value and quant funds reduced exposure.
Risk Factors
- 13F data is 45+ days stale; the cluster may have been partially or fully unwound by now
- Active value and quant funds selling heavily suggests thesis concerns (valuation, geopolitical risk, or cyclical peak in semiconductor demand)
- Mega-passive buying may reflect index rebalancing rather than fundamental conviction
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-TSM-2026-Q2 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | Institutional Cluster | $418.51 | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | 6-K | $412.35 | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Oct 15, 2026 11d ago | 6-K | $422.25 | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Oct 12, 2026 14d ago | Institutional Cluster | $444.35 | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Oct 8, 2026 18d ago | 6-K | $457.99 | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
Sep 24, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $451.15 $412.35 | ▼ −8.60% | ▼ −8.18% | — |
Sep 10, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $428.03 $457.99 | ▲ +7.00% | ▲ +4.88% | — |
Sep 9, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $435.36 $472.20 | ▲ +8.46% | ▲ +6.52% | — |
Sep 4, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $428.91 $485.80 | ▲ +13.26% | ▲ +12.66% | — |
Sep 1, 2026 7w ago | 6-K | $414.00 $456.19 | ▲ +10.19% | ▲ +9.87% | — |
US Market Status
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