The 2nm ramp is accelerating faster than expected (8% of wafer revenue in first full quarter), and the raised full-year outlook signals demand visibility extending into 2027. Watch for capex updates and the October 17 earnings call for color on AI-driven demand sustainability and potential pricing power.
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Executive Summary
TSMC reported exceptional Q3 2026 results with revenue surging 50.9% YoY to NT$1.49 trillion and EPS rising 68.7% to NT$29.43. The company guided Q4 revenue well above consensus at US$52.3-54.3 billion and raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook to ~44% in USD, driven by surging demand for leading-edge 2nm, 3nm, and 5nm process technologies. The strong beat and raised guidance confirm TSMC's dominant position in the AI and advanced semiconductor cycle.
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 revenue NT$1,494.24 billion, +50.9% YoY, +17.6% QoQ
- Q3 2026 diluted EPS NT$29.43 (US$4.60/ADR), +68.7% YoY
- Q3 2026 gross margin 66.4%, operating margin 58.7%, net profit margin 51.1%
- Q4 2026 revenue guidance US$52.3-54.3 billion (vs Q3 US$46.72B)
- Full-year 2026 revenue expected to increase ~44% in USD terms
- 2nm process contributed 8% of wafer revenue; advanced nodes (7nm+) accounted for 79%
- Free cash flow NT$476.56 billion in Q3, up from NT$287.36B in Q2
- Cash & marketable securities NT$4,016.98 billion, 39.9% of total assets
Financial Impact
Q3 revenue beat prior guidance of US$44.6-45.8B by ~2-5%; Q4 guidance midpoint of US$53.3B implies ~14% QoQ growth and ~41% YoY growth
Risk Factors
- Geopolitical risks from Taiwan-China tensions could disrupt operations
- Cyclical semiconductor demand downturn could slow growth beyond 2026
- Aggressive capacity expansion may pressure margins if demand softens
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001046179-26-000726 |
| Document: tsm-20261015x6k.htm | 0001046179-26-000726 |
| Document: a3q26presentatione.htm | 0001046179-26-000726 |
| Document: 0001046179-26-000726-index-headers.html | 0001046179-26-000726 |
| Document: 0001046179-26-000726-index.html | 0001046179-26-000726 |
| Document: 0001046179-26-000726.txt | 0001046179-26-000726 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | Institutional Cluster | $418.51 | awaiting T+20 | — | $424.37 (+1.40%) |
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | 6-K | $412.35 | awaiting T+20 | — | $424.37 (+2.91%) |
Oct 15, 2026 11d ago | 6-K | $422.25 | awaiting T+20 | — | $424.37 (+0.50%) |
Oct 12, 2026 14d ago | Institutional Cluster | $444.35 | awaiting T+20 | — | $424.37 (−4.50%) |
Oct 8, 2026 18d ago | 6-K | $457.99 | awaiting T+20 | — | $424.37 (−7.34%) |
Sep 24, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $451.15 $412.35 | ▼ −8.60% | ▼ −8.18% | $424.37 (−5.94%) |
Sep 10, 2026 6w ago | 6-K | $428.03 $457.99 | ▲ +7.00% | ▲ +4.88% | $424.37 (−0.86%) |
Sep 9, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $435.36 $472.20 | ▲ +8.46% | ▲ +6.52% | $424.37 (−2.52%) |
Sep 4, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $428.91 $485.80 | ▲ +13.26% | ▲ +12.66% | $424.37 (−1.06%) |
Sep 1, 2026 7w ago | 6-K | $414.00 $456.19 | ▲ +10.19% | ▲ +9.87% | $424.37 (+2.50%) |
US Market Status
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