8-K ·Filed Jul 22, 2026

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 6/10
Horizonimmediate Processed2mo ago SEC0001628280-26-049213
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The market has already discounted the EPS miss with a ~5.7% pre-market decline. Focus on the earnings call for capex phasing, robotaxi/FSD monetization timelines, and demand commentary in key markets. The revenue beat and record deliveries provide a floor, but margin trajectory remains the critical swing factor.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonimmediate
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
TSLA ▼ -6.15% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +6.15% · α vs SPY +9.04% · entry $374.01 → $351.02
Next anchor: T+60d in 12d
Latest observation: T+48 -0.89% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Jul 21, 07:22 PM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
-14.52%
call +14.52% · α +13.29%
$319.69
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
-20.24%
call +20.24% · α +17.84%
$298.32
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
-6.15%
call +6.15% · α +9.04%
$351.02
settled 6w ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 12d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Tesla reported Q2 2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.32, a 40.7% miss vs consensus of $0.54, despite revenue of $28.2B beating estimates of $26.4B (+7.1%). Operating income plunged 57% YoY to $398M and free cash flow turned negative (-$1.1B) as capex surged 142% to $5.8B. Record vehicle deliveries of 480,126 units and revenue growth of 26% YoY were overshadowed by severe margin compression and cost inflation from AI/robotics investments.

Key Financial Metrics

EPS
$0.32
est $0.54 · -40.7%
Revenue
$28.2B
est $26.4B · +7.1% · +26.0% YoY
Rating
miss
Free Cash Flow
-$1.1B
Gross Margin
16.8%

Key Facts

  • GAAP EPS $0.32 vs $0.54 consensus (-40.7% miss)
  • Revenue $28.2B vs $26.4B consensus (+7.1% beat)
  • Operating income $398M, down 57% YoY; operating margin 1.4% vs 4.1% YoY
  • Free cash flow -$1.1B vs +$146M YoY (capex $5.8B, up 142%)
  • Record Q2 deliveries 480,126 units (up 25% YoY)
  • Energy storage revenue $3.1B (up 13% YoY); Services revenue $4.6B (up 50% YoY)
  • Cash & investments $43.5B, down $1.2B sequentially

Financial Impact

EPS miss of $0.22 vs consensus; revenue beat of $1.8B; negative FCF of -$1.1B; operating margin contraction of 269bp

epsoperating incomefree cash flowoperating margin

Risk Factors

  • Continued margin compression from elevated capex and operating expenses
  • Demand slowdown potential as vehicle ASPs decline and regulatory credits drop
  • Execution risk on Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus production ramps

Market Snapshot

Price
$357.40
Change
-5.7%
Volume
50
Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies
Analyst Consensus
48% bullish (60 analysts)

Investment Themes

Artificial IntelligenceElectric VehiclesRobotics & Automation

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001628280-26-049213
Document: tsla-20260722.htm0001628280-26-049213
Document: 0001628280-26-049213-index-headers.html0001628280-26-049213
Document: 0001628280-26-049213-index.html0001628280-26-049213
Document: 0001628280-26-049213.txt0001628280-26-049213
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001628280-26-049213
12 reports for TSLA
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 3 of 3 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +11.68%Apr 23, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TSLA — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 19, 2026
6w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$351.12 $366.20▲ +4.29%▲ +6.25%$371.59 (+5.83%)
Aug 18, 2026
6w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$336.87 $358.08▲ +6.30%▲ +7.61%$371.59 (+10.31%)
Jul 22, 2026
10w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$374.01 $351.02▲ +6.15%▲ +9.04%$371.59 (+0.65%)
Jul 15, 2026
11w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$394.46 $327.51▼ −16.97%▼ −19.31%$371.59 (−5.80%)
Jul 14, 2026
11w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$396.18 $332.81▼ −16.00%▼ −18.49%$371.59 (−6.21%)
Jul 2, 2026
13w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$393.45 $308.85▼ −21.50%▼ −21.09%$371.59 (−5.56%)
Jun 5, 2026
17w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$391.00 $419.77▲ +7.36%▲ +5.50%$371.59 (−4.96%)
Apr 30, 2026
22w ago
10-K/A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$390.60 $415.55▲ +6.39%▲ +1.12%$371.59 (−4.87%)
Apr 23, 2026
23w ago
Court Ruling
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$373.62 $417.26▲ +11.68%▲ +7.05%$371.59 (−0.54%)
Apr 22, 2026
23w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$373.62 $417.26▼ −11.68%▼ −7.05%$371.59 (+0.54%)
Showing 10 of 12

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