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EFFECT ·Filed Jul 8, 2026

TPST

Tempest Therapeutics, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed3mo ago SEC9999999995-26-002212
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The effectiveness of this S-3 shelf enables immediate resale of ~2.4M shares by selling stockholders, creating a persistent overhang on a $17M market cap stock. Monitor for any Form 4 filings or volume spikes indicating selling has begun. The company's cash runway and clinical catalysts (TPST-1120 data) will determine whether this overhang is absorbed or weighs on the stock.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
TPST ▼ -18.35% at T+60d
SHORT call ✓ call won +18.35% · α vs SPY +20.85% · entry $0.9873 → $0.8061
Entry = T+0 close
Jul 8, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-1.27%
call +1.27% · α +2.11%
$0.9748
settled 4mo ago
T+5d
-0.69%
call +0.69% · α +1.55%
$0.9805
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
-7.39%
call +7.39% · α +10.67%
$0.9143
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
-18.35%
call +18.35% · α +20.85%
$0.8061
settled 26d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Tempest Therapeutics' S-3 registration statement (File No. 333-297061) became effective on July 7, 2026, enabling the resale of up to 2,426,897 shares of common stock by selling stockholders, including shares underlying warrants from a May 2026 inducement transaction. This adds near-term overhang of ~15% dilution on the current 15.98M outstanding shares, though the company will not receive proceeds from resales.

Key Facts

  • S-3 registration (File No. 333-297061) became effective on July 7, 2026
  • Registration covers 2,426,897 shares for resale by selling stockholders
  • Shares include 2,344,828 shares underlying New Warrants at $1.73 exercise price and 82,069 Placement Agent Warrants at $2.1625
  • Company will not receive proceeds from share resales; could receive up to ~$4.23M if all warrants exercised for cash
  • Potential dilution of ~15% on 15.98M outstanding shares
  • This is the third S-3 shelf to go effective in ~100 days (prior S-3s from April 2 and March 30, 2026)

Financial Impact

Up to 2.4M shares (~15% dilution) can now be resold into the market; company may receive up to ~$4.23M from warrant exercises

dilutionshare count

Risk Factors

  • Immediate overhang from up to 2.4M shares eligible for resale (~15% dilution)
  • Multiple S-3 shelves now effective, increasing aggregate potential dilution
  • Low market cap ($17M) makes stock vulnerable to selling pressure from any single large block

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Analyst Consensus
86% bullish (7 analysts)

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-002212
Document: 9999999995-26-002212-index.html9999999995-26-002212
Document: 9999999995-26-002212.txt9999999995-26-002212
27 reports for TPST
Performance horizon
77% Hit rate @ T+20 10 of 13 directional calls Went positive at some point 12 of 14 best @ T+60▲ +39.55%May 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TPST — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 26, 2026
today
DEF 14A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
—awaiting T+20——
Oct 20, 2026
6d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.5282awaiting T+20—$0.5100 (−3.45%)
Oct 20, 2026
6d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.5282awaiting T+20—$0.5100 (−3.45%)
Oct 19, 2026
7d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$0.5762awaiting T+20—$0.5100 (−11.49%)
Oct 2, 2026
24d ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.8112awaiting T+20—$0.5100 (+37.13%)
Sep 25, 2026
4w ago
S-3
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.8316 $0.5102▲ +38.65%▲ +38.62%$0.5100 (+38.67%)
Sep 17, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$0.9680 $0.6240▼ −35.54%▼ −35.74%$0.5100 (−47.31%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$0.8950 $0.6350▼ −29.05%▼ −30.51%$0.5100 (−43.02%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.8950 $0.6350▼ −29.05%▼ −30.51%$0.5100 (−43.02%)
Sep 11, 2026
6w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.8117 $0.7601▲ +6.36%▲ +8.23%$0.5100 (+37.17%)
Showing 10 of 27

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Wed (10h 15m)

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Report published Jul 8, 2026