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EFFECT ·Filed Oct 2, 2026

TPST

Tempest Therapeutics, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 6/10
Horizonweeks Processed24d 23h ago SEC9999999995-26-003135
IPO/offering going effective
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

Monitor for any takedown announcements or warrant exercise notices from selling stockholders; the large overhang may pressure the stock until the registration is utilized or expires. Watch for any concurrent capital raise or business update that could offset dilution concerns.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+5d
TPST ▼ -6.30% at T+5d
SHORT call ✓ call won +6.30% · α vs SPY +7.46% · entry $0.8112 → $0.7601
Next anchor: T+20d in 3d
Latest observation: T+15 +33.71% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Oct 2, 2026
via day close
T+1d
-2.29%
call +2.29% · α +2.97%
$0.7926
settled 22d ago
T+5d
-6.30%
call +6.30% · α +7.46%
$0.7601
settled 18d ago
T+20d
Pending
in 3d
T+60d
Pending
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

The SEC declared effective Tempest Therapeutics' S-3 registration statement (File No. 333-299142) on October 1, 2026, enabling selling stockholders to resell up to 9,534,164 shares of common stock underlying pre-funded warrants, Series C/D warrants, and placement agent warrants issued in a September 2026 private placement. The company receives no proceeds from resales but may receive cash upon warrant exercises; the effectiveness creates near-term overhang from up to 9.5M potential shares entering the market.

Key Facts

  • Effectiveness date: October 1, 2026 for S-3 File No. 333-299142
  • Registration covers up to 9,534,164 shares of common stock for resale by selling stockholders
  • Shares include 3,105,591 from pre-funded warrants, 3,105,591 from Series C warrants, 3,105,591 from Series D warrants, and 217,391 from placement agent warrants
  • Company receives no proceeds from share resales; may receive cash only if warrants are exercised
  • Warrants were issued in a September 11, 2026 private placement with H.C. Wainwright as placement agent
  • Prior S-3 filed June 26, 2026 registered 2,426,897 shares; this filing adds substantially more potential dilution

Financial Impact

Up to 9.5M shares of potential dilution on an estimated ~16M outstanding base (~60% potential dilution); no immediate cash inflow to the company from resales

dilutionshare count

Risk Factors

  • Significant potential dilution (~60% of current outstanding shares) from registered resale shares
  • No company proceeds from resales, only from warrant exercises which are optional
  • Overhang may suppress stock price until selling stockholders complete dispositions

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (Primary)9999999995-26-003135
Document: 9999999995-26-003135-index.html9999999995-26-003135
Document: 9999999995-26-003135.txt9999999995-26-003135
27 reports for TPST
Performance horizon
79% Hit rate @ T+20 11 of 14 directional calls Went positive at some point 12 of 14 best @ T+60▲ +39.55%May 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TPST — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 26, 2026
today
DEF 14A
BEARISH ★ 6/10
—awaiting T+20——
Oct 20, 2026
6d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.5282awaiting T+20—$0.5100 (−3.45%)
Oct 20, 2026
6d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$0.5282awaiting T+20—$0.5100 (−3.45%)
Oct 19, 2026
7d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$0.5762awaiting T+20—$0.5100 (−11.49%)
Oct 2, 2026
24d ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.8112awaiting T+20—$0.5100 (+37.13%)
Sep 25, 2026
4w ago
S-3
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.8316 $0.5102▲ +38.65%▲ +38.62%$0.5100 (+38.67%)
Sep 17, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$0.9680 $0.6240▼ −35.54%▼ −35.74%$0.5100 (−47.31%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$0.8950 $0.6350▼ −29.05%▼ −30.51%$0.5100 (−43.02%)
Sep 16, 2026
5w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.8950 $0.6350▼ −29.05%▼ −30.51%$0.5100 (−43.02%)
Sep 11, 2026
6w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.8117 $0.7601▲ +6.36%▲ +8.23%$0.5100 (+37.17%)
Showing 10 of 27

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Wed (10h 13m)

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Report published Oct 2, 2026