Baird's downgrade is a contrarian call against strong upward EPS revisions and bullish consensus, but the firm's below-average accuracy and unchanged PT reduce conviction. Traders should watch for further downgrades or insider buying to confirm a shift in sentiment.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Baird double-downgraded Teradyne (TER) from Outperform to Neutral on August 21, 2026, maintaining a $420 price target. The stock closed at $379.65, implying 10.6% upside to the target. Baird's track record on TER is below average — 50% accuracy on 4 calls with a 3.4% average return. Consensus remains heavily bullish: 17 of 22 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell. The mean price target is $449.80, median $450, high $550, low $350. EPS estimates have been revised sharply higher over the past 30 days — +1y EPS up 18.5% to $11.55, current quarter up 57.5% to $2.05 — with 15 upward revisions and 0 downward in the last week. Insider selling has been persistent, with $4.1M in sales over the past month, including a $1.7M sale by Smith Gregory Stephen on August 17. Short interest is elevated at 57.6% of float. The downgrade is contrarian to consensus and to the strong upward EPS revision trend, but Baird's below-average accuracy and unchanged PT limit the signal's impact.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 5 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 22 analysts. The consensus direction is strongly bullish, making Baird's downgrade a clear outlier.
Mean price target is $449.80, median $450, high $550, low $350. Current price $379.65 implies 18.5% upside to the mean. Baird's $420 PT is below the mean and median, sitting in the 30th percentile of the range.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Baird | downgrade | Neutral | $420.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $397.00 |
| 2026-07-30 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $420.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | Cantor Fitzgerald | reiterate | Overweight | $550.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $500.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $500.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Buy | $465.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | Susquehanna | maintain | Positive | $550.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Overweight | $550.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $525.00 |
30-day analyst activity shows 0 upgrades and 1 downgrade (Baird). EPS revision trend is strongly positive: +1y EPS revised up 18.5% to $11.55 over 30 days, current quarter up 57.5% to $2.05, with 15 upward revisions and 0 downward in the last week. Estimates are being revised sharply higher.
Firm Track Record — Baird
Baird accuracy: 54% on 2555 calls | avg return: 4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig-Hallum | 100% | 2/2 | 2.4% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 100% | 3/3 | 55.2% | top tier |
| Stifel | 71% | 5/7 | 39% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 60% | 3/5 | 43.9% | above average |
| UBS | 57% | 4/7 | 23.6% | above average |
| Baird | 50% | 2/4 | 3.4% | below average |
| Susquehanna | 50% | 3/6 | 7.1% | below average |
| Northland Capital Markets | 40% | 2/5 | -19.6% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 38% | 3/8 | 21.1% | below average |
| JP Morgan | 38% | 3/8 | 8.7% | below average |
Baird has a 50% accuracy rate on 4 TER calls with a 3.4% average return, ranking below average among covering firms. Top performers include Evercore ISI Group (100% on 3 calls, +55.2% avg return) and Stifel (71% on 7 calls, +39% avg return). Bottom performers include Keybanc (0% on 6 calls, -4.8% avg return) and Cantor Fitzgerald (25% on 8 calls, -5.1% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $11.55 | $9.00 — $16.53 | $6.2B | ↑14 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.01 | $1.78 — $2.21 | $1.3B | ↑15 ↓0 |
| 0y | $9.09 | $8.82 — $9.35 | $5.1B | ↑15 ↓0 |
| 0q | $2.05 | $1.99 — $2.20 | $1.3B | ↑15 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show consistent selling: $4.1M in sales over the past month, including $1.7M by Smith Gregory Stephen on Aug 17 and $510K by MATZ MARILYN on Aug 17. No insider buys. Institutional activity is mixed: Wellington Management added 49.5%, Royal Bank of Canada added 70.7%, while Korea Investment Corp trimmed 58%. Short interest is elevated at 57.6% of float. The insider selling and high short interest diverge from the bullish consensus and EPS revision trend, but converge with Baird's downgrade.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 16, 2026 16d ago | Insider Cluster | $341.15 $389.14 | ▲ +14.07% | ▲ +11.50% | $446.70 (+30.94%) |
Aug 21, 2026 6w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $375.74 $354.97 | ▼ −5.53% | ▼ −6.00% | $446.70 (+18.88%) |
Aug 18, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $404.29 $366.43 | ▼ −9.36% | ▼ −9.16% | $446.70 (+10.49%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $379.56 $404.29 | ▲ +6.52% | ▲ +6.92% | $446.70 (+17.69%) |
Jul 16, 2026 11w ago | Insider Cluster | $322.30 $373.75 | ▲ +15.96% | ▲ +17.63% | $446.70 (+38.60%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $408.56 $427.20 | ▲ +4.56% | ▲ +5.60% | $446.70 (+9.33%) |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $375.83 $392.62 | ▲ +4.47% | ▲ +3.26% | $446.70 (+18.86%) |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $375.83 $392.62 | ▲ +4.47% | ▲ +3.26% | $446.70 (+18.86%) |
May 19, 2026 19w ago | Insider Cluster | $321.40 $372.75 | ▲ +15.98% | ▲ +13.73% | $446.70 (+38.98%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $345.42 $354.11 | ▲ +2.52% | ▲ +0.17% | $446.70 (+29.32%) |
US Market Status
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