425 ·Filed Jul 20, 2026

TEM

Tempus AI, Inc.
BULLISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonmonths Processed2mo ago SEC0001193125-26-309081
Rule 425 M&A communications
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

Monitor Personalis shareholder vote and HSR clearance timeline. The exchange ratio is sensitive to TEM's stock price — if TEM trades below $48.42, the ratio fixes at 0.3356, capping dilution. A drop below $46.00 gives Personalis a termination right, creating a floor for TEM stock during the pendency of the deal.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizonmonths
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
TEM ▲ +0.78% at T+20d
LONG call ✓ call won +0.78% · α vs SPY -1.79% · entry $48.98 → $49.36
Next anchor: T+60d in 11d
Latest observation: T+49 +70.33% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Jul 20, 03:59 PM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
-4.12%
call -4.12% · α -4.01%
$46.96
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
-12.39%
call -12.39% · α -11.16%
$42.91
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
+0.78%
call +0.78% · α -1.79%
$49.36
settled 7w ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 11d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Tempus AI (TEM) has entered into a definitive merger agreement to acquire Personalis, Inc. in a stock-for-stock transaction valued at an implied $16.25 per Personalis share, with Tempus retaining the option to pay cash for up to 50% of shares. The deal brings Personalis's molecular residual disease (MRD) technology into Tempus's AI-enabled precision oncology platform, targeting a $20B market opportunity. Closing is expected by April 2027, subject to Personalis shareholder approval, HSR clearance, and other customary conditions.

Key Financial Metrics

Deal Value
$1.5B
Deal Type
acquisition

Key Facts

  • Per-share consideration: $16.25 cash option or stock based on floating exchange ratio with floor at $48.42 TEM stock price
  • Termination fee: ~$76.8M payable by either party under specified conditions
  • Personalis has a termination right if TEM stock falls below $46.00
  • Transaction structured as tax-free reorganization under Section 368(a) of the Code
  • Expected closing by April 20, 2027, with automatic six-month extensions possible

Financial Impact

Transaction valued at approximately $1.5B enterprise value (net of Tempus's existing stake). Tempus will issue stock consideration with potential cash component up to 50% of shares.

dilutionenterprise valuecash consideration

Risk Factors

  • Personalis shareholder approval not obtained
  • Regulatory delays or antitrust conditions under HSR Act
  • TEM stock price decline below $46.00 triggering Personalis termination right
  • Integration risk combining MRD technology with Tempus platform

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.
Analyst Consensus
63% bullish (24 analysts)

Investment Themes

Software & IT

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
425 Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-309081
Document: 0001193125-26-309081-index-headers.html0001193125-26-309081
Document: 0001193125-26-309081-index.html0001193125-26-309081
Document: 0001193125-26-309081.txt0001193125-26-309081
30 reports for TEM
Performance horizon
91% Hit rate 10 of 11 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +45.98%Jul 30, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TEM — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Sep 3, 2026
28d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$64.62 $62.21▼ −3.73%▼ −2.52%$76.03 (+17.65%)
Sep 3, 2026
28d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$64.62 $62.21▼ −3.73%▼ −2.52%$76.03 (+17.65%)
Sep 1, 2026
4w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$62.27 $61.28▼ −1.59%▼ −1.67%$76.03 (+22.09%)
Aug 28, 2026
5w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$64.04 $64.62▼ −0.91%▼ −0.80%$76.03 (−18.71%)
Aug 25, 2026
5w ago
144
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$68.48 $61.94▲ +9.55%▲ +9.43%$76.03 (−11.02%)
Aug 25, 2026
5w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$68.73 $62.27▼ −9.40%▼ −8.86%$76.03 (+10.61%)
Aug 21, 2026
6w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$72.69 $64.04▲ +11.90%▲ +12.37%$76.03 (−4.59%)
Aug 19, 2026
6w ago
144
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$66.65 $70.69▲ +6.06%▲ +4.95%$76.03 (+14.07%)
Aug 18, 2026
6w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$49.36 $68.73▼ −39.24%▼ −39.44%$76.03 (−54.02%)
Aug 11, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$55.69 $49.36▼ −11.37%▼ −10.96%$76.03 (+36.51%)
Showing 10 of 30

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